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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 6-14

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
This was the most memorable outbreak in June that we have since 2014 undoubtedly. Just insane what happened last night.
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When we were discussing what COULD happen yesterday, I almost brought up the Pilger event as an example of how it only takes one storm in an insane environment to do something memorable. You can and should never underestimate what a storm can do when you have the level of kinematics and thermodynamics we had in-play yesterday.

I decided against mentioning it since this setup was more akin to a March/April Dixie event where lower level lapse rates looked like it would be main failure mode (hence the reason I mentioned Easter 2020 as a better analog for how storms may overcome that issue).

I feel confident in saying this was the most significant and impactful event of the year. There’s a reasonable chance that we end up with 10+ Significant tornadoes out of this, at least 3-5 intense, and maybe 2-4 violent?
 
DanLarsen34 said:
When we were discussing what COULD happen yesterday, I almost brought up the Pilger event as an example of how it only takes one storm in an insane environment to do something memorable. You can and should never underestimate what a storm can do when you have the level of kinematics and thermodynamics we had in-play yesterday.

I decided against mentioning it since this setup was more akin to a March/April Dixie event where lower level lapse rates looked like it would be main failure mode (hence the reason I mentioned Easter 2020 as a better analog for how storms may overcome that issue).

I feel confident in saying this was the most significant and impactful event of the year. There’s a reasonable chance that we end up with 10+ Significant tornadoes out of this, at least 3-5 intense, and maybe 2-4 violent?
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Given this year, you definitely had the right not to mention it. I am no expert but I didn’t expect pre frontals to take root and go apes*** yesterday, especially with it being 2026.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
It's crazy the amount of times he got up close and got footage. Was risky but he knew his routes was well.

I'm wondering if angular momentum played a part in Washburn being violent towards the end of its life. It's interesting we haven't seen anything from its supposed peak intensity when it had 80-85 kt VROT.
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That thing was moving FAST near the end. Almost like pilger
 


Appears to be tornadogenesis of the Hebron tornado. If I post stuff from X, it's videos of these tornadoes that haven't been seen or the algorithm isn't picking up. That thing was a stout cone from the start.




Look at how rapidly it condensed at a minute into the video. Just wow, and that sideways lean indicating intense motion.
 
Kds86z said:
Given this year, you definitely had the right not to mention it. I am no expert but I didn’t expect pre frontals to take root and go apes*** yesterday, especially with it being 2026.
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Well, I did miss badly on the cells that produced the bizarre rope tornado before being taken over by the line just before that. Lol. Those two cells had the look and behavior to suggest that they were about to do something major, but a bunch of Junkvection formed around them within 10 minutes, then they were overtaken and merged into MCS behind it. Given the constructive mergers that preceded this, and there only being one new cell that fired a bit of the south at the time of the screenshot I shared, I didn’t anticipate it to grow upscale.

There’s been a lot of those instances this season where pattern recognition would tell you one thing only for the opposite to happen. I’ve seen seasoned meteorologists struggle with misses like that this season as well.
 
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WeathermanLeprechaun said:


Appears to be tornadogenesis of the Hebron tornado. If I post stuff from X, it's videos of these tornadoes that haven't been seen or the algorithm isn't picking up. That thing was a stout cone from the start.




Look at how rapidly it condensed at a minute into the video. Just wow, and that sideways lean indicating intense motion.
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These evolutions interest me the most. To see a small condensation funnel expand into a barrel or wedge within a matter of seconds is always incredible to see. I always think of this footage of the beginning of the Joplin tornado in 2011 when I see something like this occur.
 
Maxis_s said:
It's so weird to me that, despite the poor venting on hodographs and very high PWAT values, most tornadoes were completely clear of any precipitation.
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jiharris0220 said:
Nine times out of ten, the smaller updrafts wouldn’t have worked out. (Especially with how high the shear is)
The low LFC is responsible for the skinny updrafts, even if laspe rates were higher, it wouldn’t have solved that specific problem.
In this case, the very strong forcing mechanism, (the 500mb jet max) combined with the lack of an inversion layer really came in handy.
And again, the left over boundary most certainly was the final nail in the coffin for a b#st scenario.
Good example of just how important it is to have favorable Synoptics and a lucky mesoscale setting.
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jiharris explained it pretty well here. Many factors came together to barely get this event going. Smaller updrafts did mean better ventilation but now that I've got my sleep, he is right. It is pretty bewildering how we managed to put those sentences cells to work despite environment being hostile to skinnier updrafts.

I'd argue that none of this factors happen, yesterday is another big underperformance in the books. Many complex dynamics went into play to make this work. Fascinating case.
 
It's noteworthy that no cell had sustained until the Washburn, IL cell did. I had a merger in its FFD, plus interaction with the thermal boundary via observations. I wonder if this mesoscale process allowed for a extremely subtle forcing mechanism that once cells grew closer to each other, they fed off this forcing mechanism and this is how we got a much more sustained prefrontal show than expected. Many things could be at play here.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
jiharris explained it pretty well here. Many factors came together to barely get this event going. Smaller updrafts did mean better ventilation but now that I've got my sleep, he is right. It is pretty bewildering how we managed to put those sentences cells to work despite environment being hostile to skinnier updrafts.

I'd argue that none of this factors happen, yesterday is another big underperformance in the books. Many complex dynamics went into play to make this work. Fascinating case.
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And shockingly, not a lot of mergers happened with those strong to violent tornadoes. Hell the Hebron and Dwight tornadoes were completely devoid of mergers
 
KevinH said:
Yeah this may be a bit premature bud lol

The SPC does not have an outlook for D3 (Monday) yet. We have to be careful not to title threads for extended periods of time.
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Lesson learned: if a extended severe weather sequence looks on tap, it's probably deserving of the thread. Remember, this isn't a month where we rely on systems, June uses anything it can and we seen surprise tornadoes in Arkansas, intense tornado in Saskatchewan and this major outbreak.
 
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