Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 6-14

[Kds86z]

NOON IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND RATHER
FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. IF AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAN BE MAINTAINED, THEN POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL
TORNADOES, AND MULTIPLE STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADOES (EF-2/3+) GIVEN
THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ISOLATED LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL MAY
ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I'm surprised we haven't seen much @joshoctober16 this year. He should have a theory for why all these events have underperformed.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

rather rapid recovery ongoing definitely something to watch closely

 

[Jacob Aden]

Starting to get very concerned this setup lives up to it’s ceiling

 

[KCweatherboy]

There's a handful of discrete cells popping in W/NW Missouri. It will be interesting to see if they continue growing and remain discrete as they'd move into the prime risk area a few hours from now

 

[Beachwalker]

Gonna be a ton of chasers today with the area of interest being so close to Chicago.

 

[ThatGuy;P]

Gonna be a ton of chasers today with the area of interest being so close to Chicago.

Chaser convergence? Check. Highly conditional, high ceiling, moderate risk? Check. Doesn't get more 2026 that that.
Oh yeah, and the main risk area is in Illinois.

 

[US_Highway15]

Chaser convergence? Check. Highly conditional, high ceiling, moderate risk? Check. Doesn't get more 2026 that that.
Oh yeah, and the main risk area is in Illinois.

Just gonna say once again, happy I'm not chasing anymore, because I know today is going to be dangerous with all the chaser convergence.

 

[US_Highway15]

Tornado Watch issued. Surprised it's not PDS.

 

[KCweatherboy]

There's a handful of discrete cells popping in W/NW Missouri. It will be interesting to see if they continue growing and remain discrete as they'd move into the prime risk area a few hours from now

Doesn't appear this is going to happen, they're starting to congeal into more of a line like modeled.

 

[US_Highway15]

Also I don't know what's going on with this MCS over Chicago. According to the HRRR it should've weakened or at least be undergoing a major weakening process but it's not. In fact it looks like it's intensifying.

 

[Seasons of weather]

Lots of chasers reporting VERY strong winds leading to quick recovery in IA and IL

 

[TheSuckZone]

View attachment 53233
Tornado Watch issued. Surprised it's not PDS.

Yeah, that looks borderline PDS

 

[US_Highway15]

Also I don't know what's going on with this MCS over Chicago. According to the HRRR it should've weakened or at least be undergoing a major weakening process but it's not. In fact it looks like it's intensifying.

Looking through every weather model, none of them have depicted this MCS that's just entering the IN/IL border being severe and re-intensifying. It should be gone by now. Could throw a giant wrench in the line that's supposed to come through six hours from now.

It's pretty powerful too. It's showing some signs of rotation entering Momence IL.

 

[US_Highway15]

Pretty ominous look on radar right now.

 

[Maxis_s]

Pretty ominous look on radar right now.
View attachment 53234

Mesoanalysis shows a decent environment of about 0.5-1 STP. We'll have to see what it does.

 

[jiharris0220]

Not gonna lie, the LLLR are….no good.
As expected, the parameter space is extremely volatile, however, the atmosphere from the surface to 850mb cools only 5 degrees.
This is a profound lack of vertical stretching and I couldn’t think of a better way to put 5000+cape to waste.
Favorable storm mergers will have to occur for anything significant in the tornado department to verify.

 

[US_Highway15]

Not gonna lie, the LLLR are….no good.
As expected, the parameter space is extremely volatile, however, the atmosphere from the surface to 850mb cools only 5 degrees.
This is a profound lack of vertical stretching and I couldn’t think of a better way to put 5000+cape to waste.
Favorable storm mergers will have to occur for anything significant in the tornado department to verify.
View attachment 53235

Very 2026 like.

 

[Maxis_s]

Not gonna lie, the LLLR are….no good.
As expected, the parameter space is extremely volatile, however, the atmosphere from the surface to 850mb cools only 5 degrees.
This is a profound lack of vertical stretching and I couldn’t think of a better way to put 5000+cape to waste.
Favorable storm mergers will have to occur for anything significant in the tornado department to verify.
View attachment 53235

Surface to 850mb cools at about 9 degrees based on this pic. The temperature is skewed (look at the red, diagonal lines), hence the name of "skew-t"