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Severe Weather Threat June 6-11

Kds86z

Kds86z

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We are entering an active period, particularly in the northern plains. An enhanced risk has been issued for tomorrow and a higher end event is possible June 10 as an elongated and potent upper trough will progress across the region with days in between for potential severe wx.
 

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For Tuesday:

SOME TORNADO THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS CENTRAL ND DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHS IN RESPONSE TO AN
INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET.
 
Yeah this may be a bit premature bud lol

The SPC does not have an outlook for D3 (Monday) yet. We have to be careful not to title threads for extended periods of time.
 
KevinH said:
Yeah this may be a bit premature bud lol

The SPC does not have an outlook for D3 (Monday) yet. We have to be careful not to title threads for extended periods of time.
Click to expand...
Confused Britney Spears GIF
.…..No it’s not premature, we got severe weather potential every day…including Monday. An enhanced risk tomorrow and Tuesday/weds could be higher end. Severe weather isn’t only about tornadoes.

Extended periods of severe wx days absolutely warrant a thread. Better off to have it all in one place. In fact some mods recommend it when the severe weather 2026 thread gets a bit lengthy with live action.
 
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Color me a bit skeptical of Wednesday in the northern Plains as far as quality chase potential goes. SPC went through the caveats pretty well in their outlook:

While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes.

Sounds a lot like May 30, 2022, which 4-5 days out was being massively hyped as the next June 16, 1992 or June 17, 2010, only to trend quite sloppy.

So watch it do something spectacular, I'm probably just salty I won't be able to chase despite being on vacation; my wife and I will be visiting family in Ohio Tuesday-Friday of next week.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Color me a bit skeptical of Wednesday in the northern Plains as far as quality chase potential goes. SPC went through the caveats pretty well in their outlook:

While there is some model signal that the deep-layer shear vectors may only cross the surface frontal zone at a small angle, sufficient bulk shear magnitudes will exist to support supercells and bowing structures amidst potentially more complex/messy storm modes.

Sounds a lot like May 30, 2022, which 4-5 days out was being massively hyped as the next June 16, 1992 or June 17, 2010, only to trend quite sloppy.

So watch it do something spectacular, I'm probably just salty I won't be able to chase despite being on vacation; my wife and I will be visiting family in Ohio Tuesday-Friday of next week.
Click to expand...
Safe travels and happy vacation @CheeselandSkies
 
KevinH said:
Yeah this may be a bit premature bud lol

The SPC does not have an outlook for D3 (Monday) yet. We have to be careful not to title threads for extended periods of time.
Click to expand...
The last time someone made a 4-5 day thread like this, multiple notable events including Wellfleet and Enderlin occurred. Just because this doesn't look like a major outbreak doesn't mean it doesn't warrant a thread.
 
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