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5/5-5-6 2026 severe threat

The fairly classic supercellular structure is probably aided by some particularly enlarged hodographs in south-central Alabama. Definitely in a prime environment, if it decides to do something.
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The ML-based StormNet near-term forecast system depicts two local maxima for tornado potential over the next several hours, one from roughly Hattiesburg, MS, through southern AL over to Columbus, GA, and another from the vicinity of Anniston, AL into the Atlanta Metro. Two foci of convection are intensifying warm sector storms in MS that should move east-northeastward along the I-20 corridor, and QLCS storms north of I-20 that will slowly move east-southeastward, intensifying with time. On our northern axis, damaging winds seem likely regardless of tornado potential, given things being more frontal; this could also become the case if things further to the south grow upscale this evening, though things have remained fairly discrete thus far. Lightning is also through the roof with a lot of these storms - a lot of folks will be in for a light show tonight.
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On AWN, Spann said that the meteorologist at the NWS in Birmingham, who's working the warning desk, says that based off the latest round of hodographs, the main threat tonight across Alabama is going to be straight line winds with embedded supercells, due to the lack of low level curvature, as well as the STPs not being very high.
 
Clancy said:
The ML-based StormNet near-term forecast system depicts two local maxima for tornado potential over the next several hours, one from roughly Hattiesburg, MS, through southern AL over to Columbus, GA, and another from the vicinity of Anniston, AL into the Atlanta Metro. Two foci of convection are intensifying warm sector storms in MS that should move east-northeastward along the I-20 corridor, and QLCS storms north of I-20 that will slowly move east-southeastward, intensifying with time. On our northern axis, damaging winds seem likely regardless of tornado potential, given things being more frontal; this could also become the case if things further to the south grow upscale this evening, though things have remained fairly discrete thus far. Lightning is also through the roof with a lot of these storms - a lot of folks will be in for a light show tonight.
eopBgPH.png
gWjWHIc.gif
fSB8ZGA.gif
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Will be interesting to see how this plays out
 
There isn't much of an organized mid-level mesocyclone on the Montgomery cell, only extremely broad and fairly weak rotation. Until that develops, it's gonna struggle to produce anything substantial.
The cell near Alexandria, LA is looking interesting though.
 
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