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Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Hail to be the main threat today. Very low end tornado threat for today.

ASTORP has a 15 hatch for today, it's getting caught put on today for some odd reason. The placement for a potential tornado threat isn't bad but it's way overdoing intensity.
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While they likely won't be significant I do think we might see a few.

This event is also the first chance I have to test my full WSR-57 colortable (REF, VELO, CC and SW), as I finished making it at like 2:00 am this morning! When images come back I'll post a few photos.
 
Kds86z said:

..SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST

HAVE UPGRADED PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TO A MODERATE RISK FOR WHAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE A SEMI-FOCUSED SUB-REGIONAL CORRIDOR OF SUPERCELLS
INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL ALONG WITH SOME DAMAGING
WIND/TORNADO RISK CENTERED ON MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY/MID-EVENING.
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Oh hail yeah...

Okay, I'll bounce out of here.
 
WhirlingWx said:
Initiation has already occurred in TX. Where? Around Wichita Falls, because it's always Wichita Falls...

It's a little early, so we'll just have to see how this storm and any other developing convection evolves.
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FuLKVbbXwBAWsYF.png

Weather radio caught me off-guard with a tornado watch. 40/20 probabilities
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Yesterday wasn't a day with particularly major failure modes that were evident. Aside from one strong tornado in Arkansas, this didn't verify a significant day at much. And there will be the typical backlash on the SPC for this, but this really wasn't a setup that looked evident until later on with the more stout EML via ACARS soundings. Models didn't handle yesterday well and still initiated despite obvious 700mb temp issues, of course, this was due t models underselling this potential. It became evident your main regime of discrete cells in S AR was the main event.

Take it as a learning opportunity. I could've certainly been a bit more cautious with my wording, and maybe got ahead of myself regarding tornado intensity yesterday. It's funny this was the one setup people decided not to call off, but in the end, it still ended up severely underperforming unlike other events where people called off early and it ended up performing. Another late April event that severely underperformed nearly a day to the 4/28/25 bust. Stout EML played a huge part into this, and something was off regarding the S MO storms.
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I would certainly love to see what the inevitable Convective Chronicles video on this event would have to say about why this event underperformed the way that it did!
 
slenker said:
Wichita Falls storm seems like it’s weakly trying to hook on reflectivity. Velocity has some rotation on it too.
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It might try to drop something in the near-term; velocities are tightening up.
 
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