Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[Grand Poo Bah]

If you needed another reason to be bullish on today, we're currently back in phase 2 of the MJO, which is the phase associated with the most violent tornadoes. It has been highly amplified for almost 3 weeks, which is also associated with severe weather in the US

 

[jiharris0220]

Aggregated cumulus field development in the back tip of the MCS outflow boundary, (which is beginning to advect north now).
You can also clearly see the edge of the forcing mechanism (outlined in blue), right on time.

The inversion layer is coring the low level cloud deck in southern Illinois, expect parameters here to rapidly increase in the next few hours.

 

[Maxis_s]

Scary looking structure on that storm right next to the St. Louis radar. Not much rotation but it could try to do something.

 

[SmokeEater]

TW for St Louis.

 

[The Nino]

eyes on the storm coming into St Louis

 

[Kds86z]

Scary looking structure on that storm right next to the St. Louis radar. Not much rotation but it could try to do something.

Tor warned

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I really can't believe they didn't go with CIG 3 or high risk based on the observed Springfield sounding... That's as high-end as it gets. Not only that, but they put Springfield in the 5% Cig 1.

 

[ColdFront]

I really can't believe they didn't go with CIG 3 or high risk based on the observed Springfield sounding... That's as high-end as it gets. Not only that, but they put Springfield in the 5% Cig 1.

I think it’s a question at this point of storm mode and storm coverage.

 

[Muwx]

I really can't believe they didn't go with CIG 3 or high risk based on the observed Springfield sounding... That's as high-end as it gets. Not only that, but they put Springfield in the 5% Cig 1.

Not really much indication that the immediate Springfield area is going to convect.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I think it’s a question at this point of storm mode and storm coverage.

I'm not sure i've ever heard Trey as bullish as he is in today's video. Plus the morning convection is gone, and cleared out earlier than expected, which was supposed to be the main fly in the ointment.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

80/60 probs on that watch, just shy of PDS probs IIRC

 

[Maxis_s]

I really can't believe they didn't go with CIG 3 or high risk based on the observed Springfield sounding... That's as high-end as it gets. Not only that, but they put Springfield in the 5% Cig 1.

Storm mode is questionable. Storm motion is somewhat parallel to any initiating front which would mean that storms would grow upscale fairly quickly, and OWS development isn't a guarantee.

 

[US_Highway15]

Surprised they didn't go with a PDS watch.

 

[ColdFront]

Surprised they didn't go with a PDS watch.

Alright guys, let’s pack it up (I’m joking)

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg across TX, and 2000 J/kg
as far east as the ArkLaMiss) and favorable deep-layer shear will
support supercell development, with an attendant threat of very
large hail initially. Modestly enhanced low-level flow from east TX
into the ArkLaMiss will also support some tornado potential, with
some conditional risk of a strong tornado with any sustained
supercell. An increase in storm co