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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/24-4/26

speedbump305 said:
How’s Trey feeling about today? Always trust his analysis for outbreaks in the lead up.
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He's pretty bullish on the all hazards risk, calling a pretty potent setup (and rightfully so).

If there was more storm coverage I'd be okay with a small 15% upgrade in the tor probs but since the storms are looking to be isolated, the current risk outlook is actually pretty perfect all things comsidered.
 
I might sound like Reed here for a second but I fear we may be in a pretty significant outbreak sequence. Started off with that EF-4 in the Gray Ridge subdivision of Enid and yesterday had a couple tornadoes as well. Today looks potent and tomorrow should feature at least a couple of tornadoes and Monday might be the peak of the sequence. It might even continue into Tuesday also.

Seriously, we have very potent setups lined up like a grocery line. Some are more conditional than others but you've gotta stay weather aware if your in these areas.
 
Ozonelayer said:
I might sound like Reed here for a second but I fear we may be in a pretty significant outbreak sequence. Started off with that EF-4 in the Gray Ridge subdivision of Enid and yesterday had a couple tornadoes as well. Today looks potent and tomorrow should feature at least a couple of tornadoes and Monday might be the peak of the sequence. It might even continue into Tuesday also.

Seriously, we have very potent setups lined up like a grocery line. Some are more conditional than others but you've gotta stay weather aware if your in these areas.
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Big change after this

 
Hi! What can I get for you today?

Well, I think I’ll have the 2-piece tornado special please.

And how would you like those?

EF3 please

And for your side?

Yes, I’ll go with the giant hail

What size on that hail? We have baseball, softball, and grapefruit.

Grapefruit.

Okay we will get that in and as soon as it gets started, it should explode.

Thank you.
 



..OKLAHOMA

THE LEVEL OF SEVERE RISK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHAT OCCURS
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAVE A FAIRLY
NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE INHIBITION WOULD BE
MINIMIZED. THAT SAID, THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE NEBULOUS AT
BEST AND OVERCOMING THE CAP WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON STRONG
HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE NOSE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS
GUIDANCE UNIFORMLY DOES NOT CONVECT ALONG THE DRYLINE. GIVEN GREATER
THAN 50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE, STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EVENING), STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS --
INCLUDING VERY-LARGE HAIL AND A STRONG TORNADO -- SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP.
 
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