Severe WX Severe Weather 4/24-4/26

[Brice W]

@Tennie mentioned that this isn’t gonna end anytime soon. Looked at the 18z GFS for early May and I call can say is ooh boy.

 

[Weatherguyx]

 

[JPWX]

Today's severe thunderstorm/tornado warnings in Central California is a clear indicator. Meteorology 101: Whenever you have severe weather in California, look for a greater threat further east.

 

[N0mz]

18z euro says we're running back 1974 on the 15th anniversary of 4/27

 

[andyhb]

Monday has the potential to be a large scale event if there isn't too much leftover convection from Sunday given a) the expanse of the EML that looks to sweep eastwards, b) the quality of moisture over a large area, and c) the shear profiles.

Sunday itself could be a significant event in the S Plains, although I do wonder if the trough may slow to the point where CI is isolated (wind profiles are crazy though). Part of the issue is veered low level winds early that advect warm air ~850 mb over the dryline and could result in excessive capping.

Could also see isolated significant severe on Saturday.

 

[RFD66]

Today's severe thunderstorm/tornado warnings in Central California is a clear indicator. Meteorology 101: Whenever you have severe weather in California, look for a greater threat further east.

I saw that and was thinking the same thing this afternoon

 

[Kds86z]

I saw that and was thinking the same thing this afternoon

I wasn’t gonna say it but .. lol.. I have known this for years, no lie. Always watch when a system comes on the coast of CA and what it does.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

sites broken but D4 and D5 30% for OK and Vicinity

 

[N0mz]

disco:

AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

ON SATURDAY/DAY-4, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG A
LIFTING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG AS A LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUALLY ADVECTS
MID 60FS DEWPOINTS NORTH ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS WOULD SUPPORT AN INITIAL SUPERCELL THREAT THAT
SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS OVERNIGHT. A 30% AREA IS
INTRODUCED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR STRONG BOWING SEGMENTS TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT INTO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND QLCS TORNADOES.

ON SUNDAY/DAY-5, ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MAY POSE A CONTINUED
RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, AND THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST
INTO MID MORNING. TO THE WEST, CONTINUED MOIST LOW-LEVEL ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60FS TO LOW
70FS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE EAST OF A SHARP DRYLINE. AT THE
SAME TIME, A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE SHOULD APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH A
MID-990-MILLIBAR SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE RESULT OF THIS SETUP WILL BE A VOLATILE
ATMOSPHERE WHERE MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 J/KG EXIST WITHIN A
STRONGLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL SHEAR NEARLY 50 KNOTS). SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE, A HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD
MATERIALIZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVING MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITIES OVERSPREADING THE DRYLINE. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS
THE NEED FOR A 30% SEVERE AREA FOR THIS POTENTIAL DESPITE THE LACK
OF A QPF SIGNAL IN THE GLOBAL MODELS, AND HAVE OPTED TO ADD ONE WITH
THIS FORECAST. THE LOCATION OF THIS 30% WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
REFINED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY/DAY-6 ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG
AND 40-KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. THE LOCATION, NUMBER,
AND INTENSITY OF THESE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY THE
EVENTS OF SUNDAY. SPECIFICALLY, IF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DOES NOT
OCCUR SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, A MORE ROBUST RESERVOIR OF
CAPE/LAPSE-RATES WILL BE AVAILABLE TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY AND A HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY
DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

BY TUESDAY/DAY-7 INTO WEDNESDAY/DAY-8, UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INCREASES TOO MUCH TO HAVE CONFIDENCE
IN IDENTIFYING SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH, AS THE MESOSCALE
DETAILS BECOME CLEARED IN THE PRECEDING DAYS, AREAS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

..MARSH.. 04/22/2026

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Sunday will have alot bearing how mondays threat shapes up, convection still lacking on Sundays per models . But what does fire will go severe quick along the dry line Sunday

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

disco:

AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

ON SATURDAY/DAY-4, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG A
LIFTING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG AS A LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUALLY ADVECTS
MID 60FS DEWPOINTS NORTH ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS WOULD SUPPORT AN INITIAL SUPERCELL THREAT THAT
SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS OVERNIGHT. A 30% AREA IS
INTRODUCED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR STRONG BOWING SEGMENTS TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT INTO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND QLCS TORNADOES.

ON SUNDAY/DAY-5, ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MAY POSE A CONTINUED
RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, AND THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST
INTO MID MORNING. TO THE WEST, CONTINUED MOIST LOW-LEVEL ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60FS TO LOW
70FS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE EAST OF A SHARP DRYLINE. AT THE
SAME TIME, A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE SHOULD APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH A
MID-990-MILLIBAR SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE RESULT OF THIS SETUP WILL BE A VOLATILE
ATMOSPHERE WHERE MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 J/KG EXIST WITHIN A
STRONGLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL SHEAR NEARLY 50 KNOTS). SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE, A HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD
MATERIALIZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVING MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITIES OVERSPREADING THE DRYLINE. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS
THE NEED FOR A 30% SEVERE AREA FOR THIS POTENTIAL DESPITE THE LACK
OF A QPF SIGNAL IN THE GLOBAL MODELS, AND HAVE OPTED TO ADD ONE WITH
THIS FORECAST. THE LOCATION OF THIS 30% WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
REFINED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY/DAY-6 ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG
AND 40-KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. THE LOCATION, NUMBER,
AND INTENSITY OF THESE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY THE
EVENTS OF SUNDAY. SPECIFICALLY, IF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DOES NOT
OCCUR SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, A MORE ROBUST RESERVOIR OF
CAPE/LAPSE-RATES WILL BE AVAILABLE TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY AND A HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY
DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

BY TUESDAY/DAY-7 INTO WEDNESDAY/DAY-8, UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INCREASES TOO MUCH TO HAVE CONFIDENCE
IN IDENTIFYING SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH, AS THE MESOSCALE
DETAILS BECOME CLEARED IN THE PRECEDING DAYS, AREAS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

..MARSH.. 04/22/2026

wow insane set of discussions

 

[UncleJuJu98]

3 potential high end severe days coming down the pipeline

 

[rushdude]

I'm worried what Saturday's going to look like for North TX.
At home, the bathroom is the most 'central' and probably safest spot . The apartment complex where my granddad lives, not entirely sure

 

[Ozonelayer]

Took a look at the forecasts+models and woooooooo boy. Saturday, Sunday, and Monday all have the potential to be significant, possibly even higher-end days.

 

[akt1985]

This morning, models are trending drier in Alabama on 4/27.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

This morning, models are trending drier in Alabama on 4/27.

Not good

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Currently I think Sunday stands out far ahead as the red letter day, the most attention should be focused on that day

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Currently I think Sunday stands out far ahead as the red letter day, the most attention should be focused on that day

All depends on how much convection can fire , thst cap looks fairly stout Sunday

 

[Ozonelayer]

Currently I think Sunday stands out far ahead as the red letter day, the most attention should be focused on that day

If that dryline fires then we would have a very big problem on our hands. 3000-4000+ J/kg of SB/MLCAPE mixed with 400-500 m2/s2 ESRH/0-3 SRH sits ahead of that dryline so if anything pops, it'll explode into a supercell with all sig severe hazards. Shear Vectors are perfectly perpendicular too so supercellular storm mode is a likely outcome.

 

[slenker]

If that dryline fires then we would have a very big problem on our hands. 3000-4000+ J/kg of SB/MLCAPE mixed with 400-500 m2/s2 ESRH/0-3 SRH sits ahead of that dryline so if anything pops, it'll explode into a supercell with all sig severe hazards. Shear Vectors are perfectly perpendicular too so supercellular storm mode is a likely outcome.

If it’s too perpendicular, doesn’t the issue become storm splitting and interactions with left/right splits with a supercellular mode? I don’t think completely perpendicular shear vectors would be the best for sustained significant severe weather - I’m no expert though.