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Severe Weather 4/17/26

There's tons of updraft helicity swaths on the hrrr, but nothing long track or particularly intense. We're leaving Kansas City around 3:30-4 so it looks like I'll be going on my first storm chase!... Involuntarily. It'll be a great team building excersize for my new job!... My whole team and manager are gonna be in a single large van driving through it lmao.
 
It’s entirely possible we could also get a day similar to 5/21/2024.
Even though the storm mode was mostly linear, the line segment produced multiple sig tornadoes including the greenfield tornado.
5/24/2011 went upscale quickly but in the brief semi discrete mode, also produced multiple sig tornadoes.
Obviously these are fundamentally different events and are apple to oranges comparisons, but the point is that squall line or overcrowded doesn’t always mean a stunted tornado event.
When you have cape and shear values as high as they are, it increasingly becomes unlikely to not have at least 1 or 2 sig tornadoes regardless if the storm mode is messy or linear.
 
The southern threat down into KS/Ok looks wildly underwhelming at this point.... and honestly I know the parameters are pretty high up into Wisconsin but that looks pretty sloppy with a short window to produce before the front blasts through as well. I think at this point I would be a little surprised if this ends up being a tornado driven moderate risk unless something changes.
 
Schoeppeya said:
The southern threat down into KS/Ok looks wildly underwhelming at this point.... and honestly I know the parameters are pretty high up into Wisconsin but that looks pretty sloppy with a short window to produce before the front blasts through as well. I think at this point I would be a little surprised if this ends up being a tornado driven moderate risk unless something changes.
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Looking menacing, then downtrending before the event, has been the story this year. However, this set up has by far the highest ceiling in my opinion of this year.
 
slenker said:
inb4 "2018ing"
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2018 never even really looked like it would have any high-ceiling events throughout the whole spring, apart from perhaps the day in March that produced the Jacksonville, AL EF3 and the May 1-2 setup which downtrended hard and really only produced the Tescott, KS EF3.
 
Seasons of weather said:
I see the line of cells firing off in N IL as well, I know it isn't in the primed parameter space but looking like higher tor chances in Chicagoland compared to Tuesday?

EDIT: Haha I guess I am looking for insight from someone more experienced so would love to hear your thoughts
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yeah looks like a pretty strong line coming into chicagoland, I think we should wait to see how models trend to make an accurate guess at this.

btw, welcome in fellow chicagolander!
 
Muwx said:
Outlook is several minutes late, probably means nothing but I was wonder if they are upgrading when an outlook is late.
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Most of the time they're off the mark in terms of exact timing; wouldn't be too concerned by it. Back in March they were almost an hour late for an outlook iirc.
 


..FROM IA INTO WI AND NORTHWEST IL

STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM IA INTO SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHWEST IL. WHILE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 8.5 C/KM,
ALONG WITH 200-300 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
NEAR THE WARM FRONT. WHILE AN EVENTUAL SQUALL LINE MAY TAKE SHAPE
LATE IN THE DAY, SCATTERED SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY AFTER ABOUT 19Z
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW AND AS DEWPOINTS RISE RAPIDLY. AS SUCH,
CONDITIONAL TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED FURTHER TO
INDICATE STRONGER TORNADO POTENTIAL.
 
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