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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Don't know if i like the trend for Tuesday in the Plains along that low. NAM now becoming favorable for convection and all hazards in Iowa. I'm curious if a secondary target could exist near the surface low with such strong 3CAPE and strong low level shear.
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I wouldn't be entirely shocked. Might see a classic significant cold-core esque (in terms of strong 3CAPE and Low Level Shear aswell as being close to the surface low) setup out of the NE/IA area. Remember how 4/26/2024 was close to the surface low in NE (atleast thats how I recall it)? It would remind me of that specific detail if it was to play out like that.

As for Iowa? Well I think a significant severe weather scenario is what the NAM is trending towards.

2026041118_NAM_078_41.37,-95.17_severe_ml.png
(18z NAM in Southwestern Iowa)

If this trend holds, I would not be shocked if the categorial risk is upgraded by atleast 1 level. Just absolutely textbook hodograph and low level shear is more than enough. Taking the cold bias out of the equation storms might be a little higher based but with such strong shear and 3CAPE, I don't even know if it will matter significantly in terms of tornado production. Even a QLCS would produce strong tornadoes with this setup. Once again, still far enough out that I'm still seeing if the trend holds, but good God if that isn't an environment and a half.
 
Here's some criteria for loaded gun soundings from the NWS. It appears a really important factor for busting the cap is having a very unstable lifted index. -6 to -9 is considered "very unstable". less than -9 is "extremely unstable". I'm seeing -9 and -10 all over Iowa.

1775942786771.png
 
Ozonelayer said:
I wouldn't be entirely shocked. Might see a classic significant cold-core esque (in terms of strong 3CAPE and Low Level Shear aswell as being close to the surface low) setup out of the NE/IA area. Remember how 4/26/2024 was close to the surface low in NE (atleast thats how I recall it)? It would remind me of that specific detail if it was to play out like that.

As for Iowa? Well I think a significant severe weather scenario is what the NAM is trending towards.

View attachment 52715
(18z NAM in Southwestern Iowa)

If this trend holds, I would not be shocked if the categorial risk is upgraded by atleast 1 level. Just absolutely textbook hodograph and low level shear is more than enough. Taking the cold bias out of the equation storms might be a little higher based but with such strong shear and 3CAPE, I don't even know if it will matter significantly in terms of tornado production. Even a QLCS would produce strong tornadoes with this setup. Once again, still far enough out that I'm still seeing if the trend holds, but good God if that isn't an environment and a half.
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That's quite the analog you got yourself there
 
Ozonelayer said:
I wouldn't be entirely shocked. Might see a classic significant cold-core esque (in terms of strong 3CAPE and Low Level Shear aswell as being close to the surface low) setup out of the NE/IA area. Remember how 4/26/2024 was close to the surface low in NE (atleast thats how I recall it)? It would remind me of that specific detail if it was to play out like that.

As for Iowa? Well I think a significant severe weather scenario is what the NAM is trending towards.

View attachment 52715
(18z NAM in Southwestern Iowa)

If this trend holds, I would not be shocked if the categorial risk is upgraded by atleast 1 level. Just absolutely textbook hodograph and low level shear is more than enough. Taking the cold bias out of the equation storms might be a little higher based but with such strong shear and 3CAPE, I don't even know if it will matter significantly in terms of tornado production. Even a QLCS would produce strong tornadoes with this setup. Once again, still far enough out that I'm still seeing if the trend holds, but good God if that isn't an environment and a half.
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QUICK NOTE: NAM tends to overdo these thermodynamic environments. I still don't see much mature cells fire near the low here so for now, this is q conditionally significant event over here. Could see a window for discrete cells in Michigan but lesser low level shear compared to here.

I'm not sold on this area firing just yet but it's absolutely a window that should be monitored. Could be the genuine play out of all.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I would be wary of that supercell near Wichita. It's undergoing a similar evolution to the cell near OKC two weeks ago where it produced severe damaging winds and embedded tornadoes. It's getting pretty large and embedded.
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Great call out. Sheesh! Mesoscale analysis says it's only in 100 m2/s2 SRH, but that doesn't matter i guess!

1775945258604.png
 
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