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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

Grand Poo Bah said:
The problem isn't really the delay, it's moreso the fact the ejection is looking sloppy and disorganized. If it was just slower while maintaining structure and strength, it could be worse because it would allow more instability to accumulate in the warm sector beforehand. But I also think the movement speed is a big part of it's strength? So seems to be pretty bearish overall.
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Given we are still 4 ish days out I think everything is still on the table despite the downtrend, including wednesday becoming a bigger deal
 
Schoeppeya said:
Given we are still 4 ish days out I think everything is still on the table despite the downtrend, including wednesday becoming a bigger deal
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The Gabe Garfield video I watched was saying these high-end days are a lot easier to predict than the more concentrated localized ones because not as much has to come together perfectly for it to still be a big event.

Regardless of how the smaller mesoscale stuff comes together you still have a huge trough ejecting over a large and highly unstable warm sector. It'll be a big couple days regardless, and very easily could even be a high-end event. That much is certain. The actual ceiling and location for the most potent mesoscale factors are the uncertain part.
 
jackhutwx said:
what exactly downtrended?
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Tornado chances. Specifically, long track ones and in large quantities. That's pretty much it because the potential for big squall lines, hurricane force winds, hail, and heavy rain are still there. The environment is just looking less supportive for isolated supercells. Right now that is. As people keep emphasizing, things can easily trend back in the other direction. We're still 4 days out.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
The two things I trust least out of CAMs are soundings from the NAM and supercells from the RRFS lmao.
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NAM is OK if you add about 5-10 degrees to the surface temps. Concur on the RRFS.
 
Weatherguyx said:
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Excited American Horror Story GIF
 
MJO is back in Phase 6 already. It has been screaming around the globe. There's actually lots of 100+ tornado outbreak sequences that take place between the phases of 8 and 2 (or longer). It's interesting, I read some literature the other day which said that during most outbreak sequences the majority of violent tornadoes (EF3+) occur in the second half of the sequence. This could help explain why the most tornado days are during phase 8, yet most violent tornadoes happen in phase 2.

It's also possible the MJO stalls in phase 7 and this is a total bu$t, so really you can read into it however you want. It's basically astrology for weather forecasting.


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Here's the forecast from an ensemble of all the models

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And my breakdown of how tornado events correspond with each phase for anyone who needs a refresher...


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