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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

Amazed by how much lightning there still is. Definitely no shortage of instability.
 
Still in the 70s here in blount county - with lightning bugs out. The insect variety. I kid you not. They are in for a rude awakening.
 
Storms have passed GWX and base velocities in the low levels from those scans seem to be relatively tame, in the 40-50 range; definitely higher gusts in there somewhere, but I have hope that they might be a little less spicy than they looked earlier, outflow still outrunning the line south of Columbus
 
jiharris0220 said:
The storm mode for tomorrow is the messiest, disorderly junk I’ve seen in quite some time, actually just straight dog water.

Not a single organized cell to be found, all garbage shoot convection that limits instability.
Keep in mind that this is at 1pm and everything is pretty much of the coast by 5pm.
The synoptics are moderate risk worthy but this is honestly could be one of the greatest examples of how storm mode can cause what would’ve a major tornado outbreak to end up being a non event.
And not just tornadoes either; wind, hail, the limited instability from overcrowding screws over the other parameters too.
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Its a little too early for this kind of post... lol

Let's see what happens a few hours before this time period
 
KevinH said:
Its a little too early for this kind of post... lol

Let's see what happens a few hours before this time period
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It’s absolutely not, trend watching is a part of weather forecasting.

When everyone single model both operational and CAM shows the same thing it becomes impossible to just ignore.

While the synoptics are moderate risk worthy, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the OWS likely will be completely uncapped, along with the mid levels supporting upscale growth, which encourages a messy storm mode.

This would be different if this was occurring even as little as a day out, but we’re only a couple hours out now.

To avoid any confusion, Im by no way saying this event will b#st, the moderate risk is very much warranted, but it’s quite obvious at this point a higher end event is very low in probability.
 
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The older I get, the more I like events that underperform. I hope that continues to be the case with this one.
 
jiharris0220 said:
It’s absolutely not, trend watching is a part of weather forecasting.

When everyone single model both operational and CAM shows the same thing it becomes impossible to just ignore.

While the synoptics are moderate risk worthy, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the OWS likely will be completely uncapped, along with the mid levels supporting upscale growth.

This would be different if this was occurring even as little as a day out, but we’re only a couple hours out now.
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OK, now watch Dixie Alley spin around and flip you the bird just to surprise you LOL

I know you are in Texas, but in Dixie Alley, we understand that the models are not always 100% correct. Even if they ARE all in agreement, Dixie Alley has thrown us for loops before. Nothing is 100% guarenteed here until it actually happens.

It is too early to be THIS confident. Dixie does not follow the "rules" and does not give a flying flip what the models say. Dixie does what it wants, when it wants, with what it has...

At least wait until the MD or WW comes out for the remaining area (SE AL) with the highest risk before we start this kind of talk... just CHILL for a little bit LOL
 
KevinH said:
OK, now watch Dixie Alley spin around and flip you the bird just to surprise you LOL

I know you are in Texas, but in Dixie Alley, we understand that the models are not always 100% correct. Even if they ARE all in agreement, Dixie Alley has thrown us for loops before. Nothing is 100% guarenteed here until it actually happens.

It is too early to be THIS confident. Dixie does not follow the "rules" and does not give a flying flip what the models say. Dixie does what it wants, when it wants, with what it has...

At least wait until the MD or WW comes out for the remaining area (SE AL) with the highest risk before we start this kind of talk... just CHILL for a little bit LOL
Click to expand...

I may be wrong but I think they're talking about tomorrow?
 
jiharris0220 said:
It’s absolutely not, trend watching is a part of weather forecasting.

When everyone single model both operational and CAM shows the same thing it becomes impossible to just ignore.

While the synoptics are moderate risk worthy, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the OWS likely will be completely uncapped, along with the mid levels supporting upscale growth, which encourages a messy storm mode.

This would be different if this was occurring even as little as a day out, but we’re only a couple hours out now.

To avoid any confusion, Im by no way saying this event will b#st, the moderate risk is very much warranted, but it’s quite obvious at this point a higher end event is very low in probability.
Click to expand...
Also.......

Mesoscale Discussion 0259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas affected...far northeastern Louisiana...southern
Mississippi...and northern/central Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 60...

Valid 160414Z - 160615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 60 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW60.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across the
Gulf States this evening, producing occasional reports of damaging
wind and small hail. Ahead of this line across southern Mississippi
into central/northern Alabama, a favorable unstable and strongly
sheared air mass remains in place with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg
and deep layer shear around 40 kts. This will be sufficient to allow
for more organized line embedded mesovorticies that may produce
damaging wind and tornadoes over the next few hours.

Southward across southern MS/southern AL near the coast, occasional
isolated showers and thunderstorms have been noted. Should a more
discrete storm be able to get going within the open warm sector
ahead of the main squall line, this may pose a somewhat greater risk
for a tornado given more favorable moisture profiles with dew points
in the upper 60s to 70s.
 
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