Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

That's a unusual hand of cells firing in NE MS. Like I said, i doubt they mature. But interesting to see things fired there after allm

 

[RFD66]

Here we go North Alabama

 

[HazardousWx]

Yellow box denotes an area that may be most conducive to tornadoes in the coming hours. WAA and intensification of the LLJ will make that region favorable to mesocyclones.

Sideways question-mark hodo, a classic.

Well smurfy! I'm in that box and near the arrow tip.

 

[Kds86z]

1 confirmed tornado warning so far today. A bit of an underwhelming so far

 

[hurricaneguy]

Storms thankfully have not been able to tap into full potential so far. Very thankful for Arkansas which has been hammered the last few years. Tomorrow was always going to be the main event for widespread severe weather.

 

[Clancy]

Ironically, those cells out in NE MS are forming a sort of second QLCS. Potentially reflects on some modelling solutions showing a staggered, broken-apart QLCS moving across the region overnight, each carrying major wind and spin-up potential.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

SPC believes those prefrontals of sorts may pose a decent tor threat. I'm not optimistic given the recent trends and how they've cluttered all their inflow entirely in half a hour but we'll see. There was better potential for this area this morning but mid levels haven't really stumped today so far.

SW of Paducah radar getting weird, three circulations and intense damaging wind as well

 

[KevinH]

I know there are a lot of warnings but so far I’ve not seen any evidence of strong tornadoes yet. So far we seem to be faring well through this. Let’s hope this continues overnight

We are just getting started.... This event will last for another 12+ hours lol

 

[JPWX]

Yeah. This little prefrontal definitely are showing supercellular characteristics.

 

[Clancy]

Evening SPC update. They're still interested in that SE AL area for possible discrete development.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO MID SOUTH AND EASTERN GULF COAST
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A squall line may continue to pose a risk for widespread strong to
severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes through late
evening as it progresses east of the middle Mississippi Valley into
the Ohio Valley. The severe threat may continue into and through
the overnight hours as it advances east of the lower Mississippi
Valley toward the eastern Gulf Coast states.

...01Z Update...
The northern flank of the ongoing squall line, and closely trailing
cold front, just south of the center of the deep cyclone migrating
toward Lower Michigan, is beginning to undercut a narrow pre-frontal
plume of mid 50s F surface dew points advecting north-northeastward
through the lower Ohio Valley. As this continues through the next
few hours, it appears that inflow may become characterized by
steadily decreasing CAPE, emanating from downstream a boundary layer
with dew points still in the upper 40s F from Lexington and
Louisville KY northward. While this is likely to result in
weakening thunderstorm activity, it is possible that widespread
gusts generally approaching to exceeding 50 kt may be a bit slower
to diminish.

Farther south, although an initial plume of better pre-frontal
moisture return into the Mid South (characterized by lower 60s F dew
points) may be overtaken by the squall line shortly, another plume
of better boundary-layer moistening appears underway across eastern
Mississippi and western Alabama. As this continues to develop
northward this evening, beneath 40 kt southerly 850 mb flow,
unstable inflow and strong shear may maintain or support
re-intensification of storms across the Tennessee Valley into
central and eastern Gulf States. Although model output has been
varied, there remains at least some signal in potential for more
discrete downstream supercell development within strengthening
low-level warm advection late tonight across southeastern Alabama
and adjacent portions of the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs,
forecast low-level hodographs could support a strong tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 03/16/2026

 

[Chris3024]

The part of the line near Ripley, MS needs to be watched closely

 

[KevinH]

At least none of the Tornado Watches right now are PDS Watches.

I am not sure if we will reach PDS level..

WW#55 seems to be the closest

 

[ThatGuy;P]

We are just getting started.... This event will last for another 12+ hours lol

And this isn’t even that 15# going right up the eastern seaboard…

 

[MMWX]

I think too many prefrontals popped up. Too many storms fighting for the same resources has limited the TOR threat in the mid-south to this point.

 

[Clancy]

Not sure what the Ripley cell is huffing, but it's quite healthy at the moment.

 

[Kds86z]

Not sure what the Ripley cell is huffing, but it's quite healthy at the moment.
View attachment 51967

What state

 

[Clancy]

What state

Northeastern Mississippi.

 

[treypops]

That's an unusual hand of cells firing in NE MS. Like I said, i doubt they mature. But interesting to see things fired there after allm

Tor incoming just southwest of Corinth. It's had a TDS for a while. Not sure what NWS is waiting for.

 

[Chris3024]

There’s the warning NE Miss.

 

[Clancy]

There's that TOR. Extends into Tennessee.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
758 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Tippah County in northeastern Mississippi...
Alcorn County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern McNairy County in west Tennessee...

* Until 845 PM CDT.

* At 758 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Ripley, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Corinth, Ripley, Selmer, Adamsville, Glen, Theo, Farmington,
Eastview, Michie, Falkner, Guys, Ramer, Stantonville, Kossuth,
Murry, Pebble Hill, Strickland, Collinstown, Biggersville, and
Wenasoga.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the
lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are
outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 8872 3472 8872 3468 8892 3481 8901
3530 8838 3500 8838 3499 8836 3486 8837
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 241DEG 42KT 3477 8888

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

MJ