Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[cniemczura]

Have some family flying through Chicago and then to Savannah on Monday. Chances they are delayed or get stuck somewhere? They're flying mid-day.

 

[Aaron Rider]

Does anyone know where I can find a synopsis of tomorrow's weather threats that is more specific to the Susquehanna Valley/southern PA?

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

https://youtube.com/@norcastweather?si=3Rgoh6RQDS1YyS6i Perhaps norcast weather not sure if it would be a synopsis

 

[warneagle]

Does anyone know where I can find a synopsis of tomorrow's weather threats that is more specific to the Susquehanna Valley/southern PA?

The area forecast discussion from your local NWS office

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[Clancy]

So I guess I'm a little bit surprised they pulled back the 10% TOR risk, but I can see why with capping issues. I'm also a little surprised that a Moderate driven damaging wind upgrade hasn't happened.

Agree - prolific wind damage isn't really question, given strong forcing, so I'm surprised they aren't harping on that more.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[SmokeEater]

 

[speedbump305]

Any chance we see an upgrade to a moderate? Todays trends have actually been quite concerning.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Clancy]

Fwiw, comparison of the 12Z CAM suite, including experimentals. We will increasingly be relying on nowcasting, but for Alabama and Georgia the core of the event today/tonight is still 12+ hours out. Ironically, I think a lot of the experimentals may have a better handle on the situation than our mainline CAMs, and it seems it's mostly the experimental models picking up on tomorrow's event over the Mid-Atlantic. Combine these details with the fact that our system is trending a little slower, and I think people across MS/AL/GA should really be taking the wind, but also tornado threat very seriously.

 

[Richardjacks]

Sounds like day one by will see an expansion of the enh risk for most of Alabama

 

[Kds86z]

 

[jiharris0220]

Not surprised that the hrrr is last second trending towards a more discrete mode today. This was talked about two days before due to the fact despite this being a coldfront event we have a perpendicular jet streak orientation relative to the PBL winds along with it being well mixed (dp in the low 60s with tp in the mid 70s).

Im particularly worried for Arkansas as they will see the greatest degree of clearing and surface heating. Suspect thats where the QLCS will stay semi discrete with the greatest chance of OWS supercells initiating.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

SPC tad late this far update

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Reed timmer is set up in Arkansas

 

[Kds86z]

New day 1


THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL CAPPING MAY INHIBIT OPEN
WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. STILL, GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
PRESENT FROM THE WESTERN KY/TN VICINITY SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THESE
AREAS AND/OR REMAIN AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE WITHIN THE LINE COULD
PRODUCE STRONG (EF-2+) TORNADOES, AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RELATED
ELONGATED/CURVED HODOGRAPHS WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEAK WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT,
A CONTINUED THREAT FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WITH THE QLCS AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE EXPANDED/COMBINED THE WIND-DRIVEN ENHANCED
RISK AREAS IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MS/AL INTO WESTERN GA AND EASTERN TN.
SOME CHANCE FOR PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS AND STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL
AHEAD OF THE QLCS MAY ALSO EXIST LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AL, THE FL PANHANDLE, AND SOUTHWEST GA.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Not surprised that the hrrr is last second trending towards a more discrete mode today. This was talked about two days before due to the fact despite this being a coldfront event we have a perpendicular jet streak orientation relative to the PBL winds along with it being well mixed (dp in the low 60s with tp in the mid 70s).

Im particularly worried for Arkansas as they will see the greatest degree of clearing and surface heating. Suspect thats where the QLCS will stay semi discrete with the greatest chance of OWS supercells initiating.

Skies cleared quiet bit here west tn too

 

[Jason Mills]

SPC has merged the two enhanced areas based on wind.