Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

[CheeselandSkies]

Hearing some rumbles here in Madison as the elevated storms push through. Meanwhile, white-out conditions have caused multiple crashes that have stretches of the Interstate system shut down in central and northern Wisconsin. Must be March!

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

It's extremely fascinating we're seeing a 60% risk, but it's only CIG 1. Seriously high probability, but relativy low intensity. Has to be because of the low CAPE right?

Isn't that 60 percent wind driven?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Isn't that 60 percent wind driven?

Correct

 

[ColdFront]

Hearing some rumbles here in Madison as the elevated storms push through. Meanwhile, white-out conditions have caused multiple crashes that have stretches of the Interstate system shut down in central and northern Wisconsin. Must be March!

I haven’t heard a single rumble of thunder yet here in southern KY. We’ve had plenty of remnant lines come through from other systems but nada. Ready to hear that, even a nice little garden variety thunderstorm would be nice.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Isn't that 60 percent wind driven?

Yes, but wind can be CIG 2 or CIG3 as well. The potential for a few intense long-track tornadoes seems like it would warrant a CIG2 on the 15% Tor risk as well.

 

[ColdFront]

Yes, but wind can be CIG 2 or CIG3 as well. The potential for a few intense long-track tornadoes seems like it would warrant a CIG2 on the 15% as well.

Probably waiting on closer model runs to see the areas with the most significant chances of tornados occurring.

 

[rushdude]

I hope everyone in the path of the storms today and tomorrow pays attention, and that they get to shelter.
Tomorrow is definitely concerning because I have an aunt and a few cousins who live in the Carolinas

 

[NorthGaWeather]

I wouldn't be surprised for a more southeastward extension of the 10% tornado risk into more of central Alabama today.

If it were me I'd get the entire state covered in 10% though lol

Yeah, it’s a bit odd to me. The ENH needs to be dragged farther east and cover the rest of N/C AL and most of W GA to account for the wind potential at least.

 

[Kds86z]

Yeah, it’s a bit odd to me. The ENH needs to be dragged farther east and cover the rest of N/C AL and most of W GA to account for the wind potential at least.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES LATE TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
AL/GA/FL. MORE RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THAT
SCENARIO, BUT WILL KEEP THE ENH FOR NOW AND RE-EVALUATE WITH 12Z
MODEL CYCLE.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah, it’s a bit odd to me. The ENH needs to be dragged farther east and cover the rest of N/C AL and most of W GA to account for the wind potential at least.

I just don't see how we won't have spin up whack a mole in central Alabama from this lol. The latest hrrr runs have up trended from the 00z 06z runs too.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Also. I think a 15% tornado risk needs to be introduced into portions of West Tennessee and maybe northern Mississippi.

@Kds86z posted my exact thoughts lol right as I was posting.

 

[akt1985]

And our first severe thunderstorm warning of the day is in eastern Iowa where temperatures are in the mid-30s in the middle of a blizzard warning.

 

[TornadoFan]

And our first severe thunderstorm warning of the day is in eastern Iowa where temperatures are in the mid-30s in the middle of a blizzard warning.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[speedbump305]

Tomorrow is gonna be a doozy… It does happen, but it’s not often you see damaging wind probabilities this high with a significant probability of a tornado outbreak occurring. Based on recent model runs this morning, tonight could be quite active as well.

 

[Muwx]

Tomorrow is gonna be a doozy… It does happen, but it’s not often you see damaging wind probabilities this high with a significant probability of a tornado outbreak occurring. Based on recent model runs this morning, tonight could be quite active as well.

I think you’re seeing the value of the new SPC methodology in action tomorrow. This would likely not be a 60% hatched wind risk under the old system and I think people are missing that.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I think you’re seeing the value of the new SPC methodology in action tomorrow. This would likely not be a 60% hatched wind risk under the old system and I think people are missing that.

Right, because they would need the 60% within 25 miles of a point probability coverage AND the at least 10% probability of 65kt+ winds within 25 miles of a point.

 

[speedbump305]

I think you’re seeing the value of the new SPC methodology in action tomorrow. This would likely not be a 60% hatched wind risk under the old system and I think people are missing that.

I actually really like the new outlook style and methodology behind it. I feel like it helps us grasp a better understanding of what could potentially unfold. Under the old system, it would just be let’s say a 30% hatched for damaging winds. All people would really think is “ oh so it’s a 30% chance or higher of damaging winds occurring and they may be significant. “ Now we actually have a grasp of just how significant these damaging winds may be! I really applaud them for their new methodology.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

2014 had one. Maybe a typo on their part. Either way, it's been a while.