-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
SPC seems to be in deep discussion about the Day 2 Update.
speedbump305
Member
That is really strong wording even for 2 days out. I would not be surprised at all to see a moderate now. The environment is high end as well.
Kds86z
Member
Huh,?
Something to note. RAP/HRRR have been showing much faster progression of this system compared to NAM. It has maintained this more progressive depiction of the front through runs. However, it is also uptrending the advection of unstable air further to the north and east run-to-run. Sounding from fairly close to home shows a favorable environment for any activity ahead of or within the QLCS, and, indeed, shows some indications of possible prefrontal activity. This could be rather unwelcome news for much of Alabama, as well as the western half of Georgia. A solution closer to the NAM would allow a more northern extent of the threat into more of Tennessee and Kentucky, but a noteworthy threat seems likely either way in Alabama and Georgia according to these solutions, as they stand currently.
O never mind. It's 12:30pm when it comes out not 11:30am. Sorry.
What do you mean @JPWX?
Oh, nvm I was confused and I asked a question to you,
I goofed. I was thinking the Day 2 Outlook Update came out at 11:30am but it's 12:30pm when it does.
Because of daylight savings time?
akt1985
Member
Time change due to Daylight Savings Time?
Kds86z
Member
Yeah outlooks are later now unfortunately. I think..
No. I guess I had the Day 1 outlook update time (11:30am) in my head and was confusing that with the Day 2. I didn't get to bed until after 12:30am this morning.
Sharpy
Member
It’s all good! You are so appreciated for what you do.
speedbump305
Member
So based on recent models and runs, which day so far is looking potentially more dangerous/potent? Haven’t had a lot of time to look.
Sharpy
Member
I think Monday. Both have high impacts across a wide swath of the country, but whether or not they actually realize their potential will be a different story.
KevinH
Member
For those of you wondering about when Outlooks are issued:
Here is a conversion table.
During EDT (Mar - Nov), I take the "Z" time and subtract 4 (for Eastern time). The next D2 update is scheduled for 1730Z. 1730 - 4 hours = 1330. This is now military time). Then I convert that military time to regular time... 1330 - 1:30PM EDT
For CDT, you would subtract 5 hours instead of 4.... So 1730Z - 5 hours = 1230.... 1230pm CST
During STANDARD time (Nov - Mar), you would increase the hour you subtract by one. So Eastern would be -5 and Central would be -6 hours.
Here is a conversion table.
During EDT (Mar - Nov), I take the "Z" time and subtract 4 (for Eastern time). The next D2 update is scheduled for 1730Z. 1730 - 4 hours = 1330. This is now military time). Then I convert that military time to regular time... 1330 - 1:30PM EDT
For CDT, you would subtract 5 hours instead of 4.... So 1730Z - 5 hours = 1230.... 1230pm CST
During STANDARD time (Nov - Mar), you would increase the hour you subtract by one. So Eastern would be -5 and Central would be -6 hours.
Last edited:
Kds86z
Member
Day 2 out.. tornado probs increased..
KevinH
Member
Kept the ENH looks like. Expanded the slight risk further east into GA.
Waiting for it to update fully
Waiting for it to update fully
KevinH
Member
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ARK-LA-TEX/ARK-LA-MISS TO THE WABASH/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH TORNADOES SHOULD
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. THE GREATEST STRONG TORNADO AND SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WIND THREATS APPEAR TO BE FROM THE ARK-LA-MISS TO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES ON SUNDAY AND
BECOME CENTERED FROM WI TO THE ARK-LA-TEX BY 12Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE IA/MO BORDER TO LOWER MI,
DEEPENING SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MS TO THE OH VALLEYS.
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF TO CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
PRIMARY CHANGES WITH THE LEVEL 3-ENH RISK ARE TO INCLUDE A
10-PERCENT TORNADO AREA, SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF 45-PERCENT WIND, AND
ADDITION OF 15-PERCENT AND CIG1 HAIL AREAS. EXPANSION OF LEVEL
1-2/MRGL-SLGT RISK AREAS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR MAINLY
THE 06-12Z PERIOD MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY IS GREATEST ON THE WESTERN
EXTENT FOR WHERE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME SEVERE, AND THE NORTHERN
EXTENT WITHIN A THERMODYNAMICALLY CHALLENGED ENVIRONMENT.
..SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE MIDWEST
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER A PORTION OF THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY, MIDDAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG THE HIGHLY CONVERGENT SURFACE FRONT ACROSS A PART OF THE
MID-MS VALLEY TO THE OZARKS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY REMAIN
SHALLOW, BEFORE DEEPENING AND GREATLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS IT IMPINGES ON RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE TOWARDS
THE ARK-LA-TEX AND THE MID-SOUTH PORTION OF THE MS VALLEY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON, AN EXTENSIVELY LONG QLCS SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM
IL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
MOST FAVORED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BROADER CONVECTIVE
PLUME NEAR THE FRONT AND DOWNSTREAM WITHIN A STRENGTHENING
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES BEFORE SUPERCELLS BECOME ABSORBED
WITHIN THE BROADER QLCS DURING THE EVENING. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD
ALSO YIELD AN INCREASINGLY PINCHED-OFF WARM-MOIST SECTOR FROM THE
MID-SOUTH TO TN VALLEY. DESPITE THIS ASPECT, SUBSTANTIAL
STRENGTHENING OF 700-MB WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, INITIALLY
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH VICINITY AND EXPANDING TO THE OH TO TN VALLEYS,
WILL YIELD A SETUP CONDUCTIVE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WIND SWATHS THROUGH THE EVENING.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
BECOME MORE SPORADIC AS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BECOMES/REMAINS
MINIMAL. BUT THE VERY FAST LOWER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY YIELD
PERSISTENCE OF SOME DAMAGING WIND/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL EASTWARD
IN THE OH VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. FARTHER SOUTH, THERE ARE
INCREASING SIGNALS FOR RENEWED LOW-LEVEL WARM CONVEYOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST GULF COAST VICINITY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS JUST AHEAD OF/MERGING INTO THE PROGRESSIVE
QLCS. THIS SHOULD FOSTER A PERIOD OF INCREASED LARGE HAIL/SUSTAINED
TORNADO POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORED
FROM AT LEAST THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ARK-LA-TEX/ARK-LA-MISS TO THE WABASH/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH TORNADOES SHOULD
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. THE GREATEST STRONG TORNADO AND SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WIND THREATS APPEAR TO BE FROM THE ARK-LA-MISS TO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES ON SUNDAY AND
BECOME CENTERED FROM WI TO THE ARK-LA-TEX BY 12Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE IA/MO BORDER TO LOWER MI,
DEEPENING SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MS TO THE OH VALLEYS.
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF TO CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
PRIMARY CHANGES WITH THE LEVEL 3-ENH RISK ARE TO INCLUDE A
10-PERCENT TORNADO AREA, SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF 45-PERCENT WIND, AND
ADDITION OF 15-PERCENT AND CIG1 HAIL AREAS. EXPANSION OF LEVEL
1-2/MRGL-SLGT RISK AREAS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR MAINLY
THE 06-12Z PERIOD MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY IS GREATEST ON THE WESTERN
EXTENT FOR WHERE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME SEVERE, AND THE NORTHERN
EXTENT WITHIN A THERMODYNAMICALLY CHALLENGED ENVIRONMENT.
..SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE MIDWEST
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER A PORTION OF THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY, MIDDAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG THE HIGHLY CONVERGENT SURFACE FRONT ACROSS A PART OF THE
MID-MS VALLEY TO THE OZARKS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY REMAIN
SHALLOW, BEFORE DEEPENING AND GREATLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS IT IMPINGES ON RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE TOWARDS
THE ARK-LA-TEX AND THE MID-SOUTH PORTION OF THE MS VALLEY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON, AN EXTENSIVELY LONG QLCS SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM
IL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
MOST FAVORED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BROADER CONVECTIVE
PLUME NEAR THE FRONT AND DOWNSTREAM WITHIN A STRENGTHENING
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES BEFORE SUPERCELLS BECOME ABSORBED
WITHIN THE BROADER QLCS DURING THE EVENING. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD
ALSO YIELD AN INCREASINGLY PINCHED-OFF WARM-MOIST SECTOR FROM THE
MID-SOUTH TO TN VALLEY. DESPITE THIS ASPECT, SUBSTANTIAL
STRENGTHENING OF 700-MB WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, INITIALLY
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH VICINITY AND EXPANDING TO THE OH TO TN VALLEYS,
WILL YIELD A SETUP CONDUCTIVE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WIND SWATHS THROUGH THE EVENING.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
BECOME MORE SPORADIC AS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BECOMES/REMAINS
MINIMAL. BUT THE VERY FAST LOWER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY YIELD
PERSISTENCE OF SOME DAMAGING WIND/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL EASTWARD
IN THE OH VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. FARTHER SOUTH, THERE ARE
INCREASING SIGNALS FOR RENEWED LOW-LEVEL WARM CONVEYOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST GULF COAST VICINITY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS JUST AHEAD OF/MERGING INTO THE PROGRESSIVE
QLCS. THIS SHOULD FOSTER A PERIOD OF INCREASED LARGE HAIL/SUSTAINED
TORNADO POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORED
FROM AT LEAST THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.