Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

[slenker]

What office is LIT exactly? I thought Little Rock but it’s LZK now

Couldn't find it on wikipedia, but I asked Chat and it seems to say it was Little Rock before they became LZK - not sure how accurate that is, but I believe it. If it is accurate, said analog doesn't mean nearly as much as I initially thought. I assumed it was somewhere in the midwest without checking because I didn't know what LIT was - my bad.

 

[ColdFront]

Couldn't find it on wikipedia, but I asked Chat and it seems to say it was Little Rock before they became LZK - not sure how accurate that is, but I believe it. If it is accurate, said analog doesn't mean nearly as much as I initially thought.

Yeah, I was a little curious, just because SRH and shear were absolutely top 99th percentile over a large area on Palm Sunday.

While that’s a healthy looking sounding, it’s not northern Indiana on the afternoon of Palm Sunday level.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Couldn't find it on wikipedia, but I asked Chat and it seems to say it was Little Rock before they became LZK - not sure how accurate that is, but I believe it. If it is accurate, said analog doesn't mean nearly as much as I initially thought. I assumed it was somewhere in the midwest without checking because I didn't know what LIT was - my bad.

KLIT is indeed Little Rock, but 00Z 4/11/65 is 7 PM CDT the evening before. There was in fact a deadly F4 in Arkansas on April 10, 1965.

List of tornadoes in the 1965 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Yeah, I was a little curious, just because SRH and shear were absolutely top 99th percentile over a large area on Palm Sunday.

While that’s a healthy looking sounding, it’s not northern Indiana on the afternoon of Palm Sunday level.

I mean tbf palm sunday is a very upper end day despite only 30-40 nadoes legit all of them were F3s-4s with a few said to have been f5s per fujita and grazulius, (pardon my spelling)

 

[genie]

This might be the one that gets me out of the house to chase, depending on how far east it gets. I draw the line at the AL/MS border.

 

[slenker]

I mean tbf palm sunday is a very upper end day despite only 30-40 nadoes legit all of them were F3s-4s with a few said to have been f5s per fujita and grazulius, (pardon my spelling)

There was almost certainly more tornadoes on that day than the official number of 55 - due to surveying limitations at the time, I fully believe there were over a hundred, especially given the context of there being 3-4+ EF5 caliber tornadoes.

 

[Clancy]

This might be the one that gets me out of the house to chase, depending on how far east it gets. I draw the line at the AL/MS border.

You'll definitely have to go west into AL, I don't expect anything in Georgia until way after dark into Monday morning, if timing remains the same.

 

[genie]

You'll definitely have to go west into AL, I don't expect anything in Georgia until way after dark into Monday morning, if timing remains the same.

Yeah, nocturnal tornadoes are no bueno for me and my little Elantra... Might go ahead and book a hotel for the Decatur area.

 

[bckhd2]

You'll definitely have to go west into AL, I don't expect anything in Georgia until way after dark into Monday morning, if timing remains the same.

I expect it to be similar to this morning, in the 2-4am time range.

 

[andyhb]

This looks like exactly the kind of system to squeeze everything it can out of what instability is available. Have noticed some pretty dry profiles down low in spots, which would increase the potential for damaging winds (and there likely will be embedded tornadoes). The setup somewhat reminds me of 4/4/2011, which was a serial derecho across the eastern 1/3 of the US.

 

[Clancy]

Yeah, nocturnal tornadoes are no bueno for me and my little Elantra... Might go ahead and book a hotel for the Decatur area.

I'd note that if you want to have a safe place to go in case of a tornado and your current residence doesn't suffice, a lot of places of business or other institutions tend to be open 24/7 and will let people in during an emergency. Many businesses and university campuses tend to do that, but you should be sure to have an idea beforehand, as you don't want to be caught in the middle of things without a Plan B. A hotel works too, but wanted to throw some additional options out there.

I expect it to be similar to this morning, in the 2-4am time range.

Could definitely be more trouble this time around, however.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

This looks like exactly the kind of system to squeeze everything it can out of what instability is available. Have noticed some pretty dry profiles down low in spots, which would increase the potential for damaging winds (and there likely will be embedded tornadoes). The setup somewhat reminds me of 4/4/2011, which was a serial derecho across the eastern 1/3 of the US.

Over 1,300 wind reports. The warning shot across the bow from April, 2011.

 

[andyhb]

The 18z NAM (84 hours out, but consistent with a couple of other models) is trouble on Sunday night, with a moisture surge into the Ohio Valley after dark and extreme shear present. This is not the kind of kinematic environment being progged that you want to be messing around with "borderline" instability in, especially with strong forcing for ascent.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

The 18z NAM (84 hours out, but consistent with a couple of other models) is trouble on Sunday night, with a moisture surge into the Ohio Valley after dark and extreme shear present. This is not the kind of kinematic environment being progged that you want to be messing around with "borderline" instability in, especially with strong forcing for ascent.

Yeah. . With slp pretty strong begin with , should be able tap Into more quality
Moisture return .

 

[Clancy]

Major caveat that it's NAM at 84 hours out, but this definitely raises both my eyebrows. Pretty concerning presentation, taken verbatim. The intrusion of moisture and instability all the way up into the Ohio Valley really catches my eye - 1,000+ j/kg in the middle of the night is genuinely impressive.

 

[Ozonelayer]

I have a question regarding storm mode:

Is it at all possible that the storm mode is supercellular? Or is it strictly a linear threat?

 

[slenker]

I have a question regarding storm mode:

Is it at all possible that the storm mode is supercellular? Or is it strictly a linear threat?

Taken verbatim with the models right now, it's definitely looking more like a damaging wind threat. But this definitely can change, and also assuming the fast jet translation speed holds, discrete development (at least initially) is definitely still possible. Quickly translating jets above >40 kt are favorable for a more discrete storm mode.

 

[warneagle]

I have a question regarding storm mode:

Is it at all possible that the storm mode is supercellular? Or is it strictly a linear threat?

shear vectors are pretty parallel to the boundary so it's looking more linear at this point

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Taken verbatim with the models right now, it's definitely looking more like a damaging wind threat. But this definitely can change, and also assuming the fast jet translation speed holds, discrete development (at least initially) is definitely still possible. Quickly translating jets above >40 kt are favorable for a more discrete storm mode.

This is looking likely to me just more than linear threat at this point

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Don't let down your guard because it's more linear, the southeast has its fair share of very significant tornado events from linear/broken line embedded supercell events, most of our tornado events favor this pattern.