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2/19/26- 2/20/26 - severe threat discussion

I trust the SPC on this one for sure. They have tools outside of just CAMs and general models to aid in forecasting - I won’t doubt them after the 4/2/25 outbreak happened (not at all comparing this event to that one though). I was one of many on this forum that doubted the high risk upgrade.
 
slenker said:
I trust the SPC on this one for sure. They have tools outside of just CAMs and general models to aid in forecasting - I won’t doubt them after the 4/2/25 outbreak happened (not at all comparing this event to that one though). I was one of many on this forum that doubted the high risk upgrade.
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I feel like that event did have the hallmarks of recognising prefrontal development, just the majority of the community overlooked it and got complacent towards the SPC (including me)

The risk for significant tornadoes is definitely there today, I'm just holding my expectations to when it actually happens. It isn't exactly definite on the cards
 
I haven't been optimistic on this robust WF rider actually verifying. Cells could struggle to develop, that is my main thinking! And people are still gloating the HRRR for nowcasting this when it comes down to the nowcasting in terms of satellite and etc. The simref is just a scenario atp. urrently, warming aloft is present and obviously we haven't destabilised the boundary layer. That's gonna be another 2-3 hours. Then it comes down to cells firing and going big.

Before we're talking that sigtor chance, we're talking cell development. It's gonna come down to real time today so
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I haven't been optimistic on this robust WF rider actually verifying. Cells could struggle to develop, that is my main thinking! And people are still gloating the HRRR for nowcasting this when it comes down to the nowcasting in terms of satellite and etc. The simref is just a scenario atp. urrently, warming aloft is present and obviously we haven't destabilised the boundary layer. That's gonna be another 2-3 hours. Then it comes down to cells firing and going big.

Before we're talking that sigtor chance, we're talking cell development. It's gonna come down to real time today so
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When are these expected to fire, assuming they do?
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I haven't been optimistic on this robust WF rider actually verifying. Cells could struggle to develop, that is my main thinking! And people are still gloating the HRRR for nowcasting this when it comes down to the nowcasting in terms of satellite and etc. The simref is just a scenario atp. urrently, warming aloft is present and obviously we haven't destabilised the boundary layer. That's gonna be another 2-3 hours. Then it comes down to cells firing and going big.

Before we're talking that sigtor chance, we're talking cell development. It's gonna come down to real time today so
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I fully agree, but you're always gonna get the chasers potentially overblowing the event in the lead-up. It's unfortunate but it is what it is. What really sucks is this type of behavior erodes public confidence in meteorologists when they don't end up verifying.

If a cell manages to develop and mature and if it manages to truly root itself to the warm front, a strong tornado or two is 100% on the cards. But I just don't think it's going to happen. I'm more on the side of there being a couple tornadoes today that are weak and short-lived, and maybe an EF2 somewhere but a brief one.
 
slenker said:
I fully agree, but you're always gonna get the chasers potentially overblowing the event in the lead-up. It's unfortunate but it is what it is. What really sucks is this type of behavior erodes public confidence in meteorologists when they don't end up verifying.

If a cell manages to develop and mature and if it manages to truly root itself to the warm front, a strong tornado or two is 100% on the cards. But I just don't think it's going to happen. I'm more on the side of there being a couple tornadoes today that are weak and short-lived, and maybe an EF2 somewhere but a brief one.
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Also people ignore the fact WF riders can also just produce hail. I just base my opinion on the models, not the risk. Chasers are always gonna be up and down here and it's almost certainly some hopeful bias sneaking in there. I am tired of hype. That's what lol. If today verifies fair but there's question marks and we shouldn't ignore them
 
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