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February 14-15th severe WX

Clancy said:
He's been dying on the hill that "the only way to make positive change in forecasting is having civilized discussion about False Alarm Ratios" and then immediately going "you stinky I'm right" in his replies. That's a yikes from me. I don't even disagree that we should think about how to manage FAR on Tornado Warnings, but his egotistical replies aren't helping his case. Meanwhile we've had multiple tornadoes overnight, including a possible SIGTOR.
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Agreed. Think this is a situation where it’s the messenger rather than the message. Plus his actions when he’s debated on it.

You can see this play out in realtime in any decently severe QLCS event in Dixie. JAN will have an entire line tornado warned, and the moment it crosses over into Alabama, BMX will issue individual severe warnings on distinct parts of the line. If it’s pretty obvious it’s an embedded tornado, they’ll warn it. I believe a lot of that is a result of Spann encouraging BMX to reduce their FAR post 4/27.
 
A couplet has been building for the last little while, now near Eastman, Georgia. Don't think it'll produce, but pretty impressive that we've had some rotating storms pretty much constantly since yesterday afternoon.
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ColdFront said:
Agreed. Think this is a situation where it’s the messenger rather than the message. Plus his actions when he’s debated on it.

You can see this play out in realtime in any decently severe QLCS event in Dixie. JAN will have an entire line tornado warned, and the moment it crosses over into Alabama, BMX will issue individual severe warnings on distinct parts of the line. If it’s pretty obvious it’s an embedded tornado, they’ll warn it. I believe a lot of that is a result of Spann encouraging BMX to reduce their FAR post 4/27.
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I can understand what he means but in this case, they were clear circulations, well visible with all the QLCS "nudger" signs to warn. There's a few PDFs our there that explains QLCS tornado warnings from some offices and it all goes into

Is there a surge?
Is there a circulation
Is the line orientation favorable?

All of these boxes were clearly ticked by this efficient QLCS. His point seems even more useless now that we've had over 5 tornadoes confirmed alone from those so called "false alarms"


I do believe warning seperate circulations is the same effect as blanket warnings. They do the job either way and some offices have preferences. In my opinion, BMX is too strict on QLCS events and they missed out on plenty from 12/28/24 due to their strictness. You can never be too clean with QLCS events because they will sneak past you
 
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