January 23-25th Winter Wx

[Blountwolf]

I'm struggling to remember such an insane forecast swing when all the models were aligned so far in advance.

A wild ride for sure - and something tells me reality may have its own ideas.

 

[Bulkshear]

So now the models bring the warm sector clear into TN so we could very well see just a cold rain!

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

GFS vs. Euro, which one usually performs better for these sort of events; southern winter systems.

 

[Clancy]

Recent Euro runs have subtly shifted south with the Baja mid-level low, not sure how recon data will change that but it's one reason to not be confident those north shifts in the 32° line will hold if the energy and resulting Gulf low trend a little slower or south, line might come back south a little at some point

Yeahhhh, I'm worried the trend might stick enough for several WFOs to change their forecasts, just for it to shift back.

 

[genie]

Hey, y'all. Longtime lurker, first time poster. Just wanted to recommend paying attention to the ensembles and not necessarily getting too wrapped up in the OP's. There are plenty of outcomes on the table.

 

[MattW]

Can anyone plot where the low actually is vs where the Euro initialized it at? Unless the low doesn't form until later, I'm a little confused on that one.

 

[Blountwolf]

Can anyone plot where the low actually is vs where the Euro initialized it at? Unless the low doesn't form until later, I'm a little confused on that one.

It will be a while before we see that in reality. The system off the California coast is what will eventually be our weather maker.

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

Can anyone plot where the low actually is vs where the Euro initialized it at? Unless the low doesn't form until later, I'm a little confused on that one.

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

Is the weaker high pressure to the north than previous model runs the reason for the northward shift?

 

[Clancy]

It will be a while before we see that in reality. The system off the California coast is what will eventually be our weather maker.

A little reminiscent of tracking hurricanes, that sort of "first layer" of uncertainty will be fairly high until the low forms.

 

[Equus]

You'll be using the 500mb map to track the Baja low and the lower level maps to track the Gulf low which is still days away

 

[Atomz]

View attachment 50096
View attachment 50097
Is the weaker high pressure to the north than previous model runs the reason for the northward shift?

Probably; There's less suppression from the high which allows for a more amplified trough. That lets the low move more north.

 

[akt1985]

Even if it is mostly a cold rain for Alabama, it’s still not going to be a nice weekend to be out and about.

 

[Ars4ua]

Yeahhhh, I'm worried the trend might stick enough for several WFOs to change their forecasts, just for it to shift back.

I’m the crazy one of the bunch that’s hoping that this bad boy shifts 200 miles south lol

 

[Clancy]

I’m the crazy one of the bunch that’s hoping that this bad boy shifts 200 miles south lol

I'd love a big ol' snow, but I don't want any ice for anybody, which doesn't seem a likely solution for now.

 

[TVILLE96]

I’m the crazy one of the bunch that’s hoping that this bad boy shifts 200 miles south lol

I do not want power outages and the chaos but winter weather brings a little excitement to the day or weekend.

 

[Ars4ua]

I do not want power outages and the chaos but winter weather brings a little excitement to the day or weekend.

Absolutely, I agree. I’m hoping that that wedge pushes into East Central Alabama a little bit to give us something to look at for sure.

 

[The Nino]

Suspender update, cold rain fingers crossed.

 

[MichelleH]

Hey, y'all. Longtime lurker, first time poster. Just wanted to recommend paying attention to the ensembles and not necessarily getting too wrapped up in the OP's. There are plenty of outcomes on the table.

Welcome to the circus!

 

[TVILLE96]

Absolutely, I agree. I’m hoping that that wedge pushes into East Central Alabama a little bit to give us something to look at for sure.

So like past winter forecasts, they will be adjusting it up until the last minute at go-live time ,correct?