Smokedevil
Member
My mets are now skeptical that it will be anything more than just a cold rain or mix. Too much trending north they say.
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January 23-25th Winter Wx
- Thread starter UncleJuJu98
- Start date
Jason Mills
Member
While the north trend is undeniable, I'm not completely sold it will stay that way. I want to see runs that incorporate dropsonde data later today before I completely buy into the northern trend, especially with how razor sharp the transition zone will be between just a cold, annoying rain and a major ice storm.
A huge piece of the puzzle is how the energy over Baja California is handled. Generally models have trended towards that energy phasing with the main branch of the jet. This more amplified solution pumps up heights over the SE, leading to a warmer solution and the majority of the winter weather staying more north.
A huge piece of the puzzle is how the energy over Baja California is handled. Generally models have trended towards that energy phasing with the main branch of the jet. This more amplified solution pumps up heights over the SE, leading to a warmer solution and the majority of the winter weather staying more north.
cg9450
Member
With the shift north, it’s looking like my area gets some snow then a bunch of ice. Really not ideal.
What is your location, if you don't mind?
Smokedevil
Member
Near tupelo. They arent outright saying no sn or ice, but they keep hurrummping the chance.
MattW
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Does anyone know if the hurricane hunter data will be ingested by the American models and the Euro? Or just the American suite?
Jason Mills
Member
I don't have any authoritative source, but I assume it would be ingested by both. It's freely available data.
- Thread starter
- #269
Man that warm wedge is impressive on the NAM
GFS is still honking that east Alabama ice storm. Tracks the low in a much more favorable (for winter mischief) southerly track. Nose is there, just further south. The track of the low, as always, is going to be the key. Looking back over the previous 2 06Z runs, the GFS has been trending north with the nose as well, but is still keeping that low tighter and closer to the coast.
Ensembles look rather nosey...
Ensembles look rather nosey...
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Psalm 148:8
Member
Except number 8, that is a classic wedge that drops from NC to the GA/AL border.. I’ve now casted that for FFC before. I’m about 20 miles SW of Newnan, GA. They said rain.. and I had a quarter inch of ice on my rose bush outside my porch door.. we are far from a final solution especially with there being an ice line as opposed to your rain/snow cutoff line. My area is long overdue an ice storm.. and I am prepared!
Equus
Member
Super encouraging trend for central Alabama, still going to keep preparing but feeling better about this than I did yesterday. Still hard to believe we don't shift back a little south with the ice given the setup but there is definitely a clear consistent trend for the moment
Excellent messaging from bmx on Facebook :
Let's talk about the uncertainty...
We have several different models we examine for weather. Each model is initialized differently, putting different weights on different parameters. So when the models run their algorithms, because they initialize differently, we can get widely different results.
When models are in agreement (generally), or have consistency, for many days out in advance before a big, impactful system, this tends to lead us to higher confidence. If models, generated differently using different weighting and different algorithms, agree, then surely that means the event will occur....right?
Sometimes.
Every now and then, one of the models picks up data that causes it to produce different output. This could be wonky data that gets ingested and causes something different. Or it could be that the model really is picking up on something in the pattern that the others aren't catching yet.
Up until last night, the low pressure causing all this rain was expected to be across the state, which would cause plenty of cold air for the rain to change to freezing rain, snow, and sleet. Last night, one of the models starting showing a vastly different solution, and pushed that low much farther north. This would prevent enough cold air from changing the rain to the snow/sleet/freezing rain. This would change the impacts significantly.
We're not advertising this widely for many reasons:
1. It JUST changed, so our confidence is low. We would need to see if the other models fall into agreement, or that model moves it's way back to what it was showing.
2. If we start advertising "little to no impacts" and then the model changes for the worse, that is MUCH harder to advertise the worsening conditions than to go the other way.
3. Looking at the environment, there could be enough cooling as the precip falls, or other environmental considerations, that colder temps could be seen, colder than what the models are showing at the surface.
So what can you do? Stay aware of the weather and know that this is a complicated system (winter in AL is by default complicated). We'll update you with any and all changes. And know we're watching every data ingestion, every raw data product, sounding, graph, chart, and measurement like a hawk.
If the low moves north and we end up with mostly rain (and maybe some storms), then consider this an exercise in preparation. If the low remains south enough to experience wintry weather, then we'll have some advance notice.
Let's talk about the uncertainty...
We have several different models we examine for weather. Each model is initialized differently, putting different weights on different parameters. So when the models run their algorithms, because they initialize differently, we can get widely different results.
When models are in agreement (generally), or have consistency, for many days out in advance before a big, impactful system, this tends to lead us to higher confidence. If models, generated differently using different weighting and different algorithms, agree, then surely that means the event will occur....right?
Sometimes.
Every now and then, one of the models picks up data that causes it to produce different output. This could be wonky data that gets ingested and causes something different. Or it could be that the model really is picking up on something in the pattern that the others aren't catching yet.
Up until last night, the low pressure causing all this rain was expected to be across the state, which would cause plenty of cold air for the rain to change to freezing rain, snow, and sleet. Last night, one of the models starting showing a vastly different solution, and pushed that low much farther north. This would prevent enough cold air from changing the rain to the snow/sleet/freezing rain. This would change the impacts significantly.
We're not advertising this widely for many reasons:
1. It JUST changed, so our confidence is low. We would need to see if the other models fall into agreement, or that model moves it's way back to what it was showing.
2. If we start advertising "little to no impacts" and then the model changes for the worse, that is MUCH harder to advertise the worsening conditions than to go the other way.
3. Looking at the environment, there could be enough cooling as the precip falls, or other environmental considerations, that colder temps could be seen, colder than what the models are showing at the surface.
So what can you do? Stay aware of the weather and know that this is a complicated system (winter in AL is by default complicated). We'll update you with any and all changes. And know we're watching every data ingestion, every raw data product, sounding, graph, chart, and measurement like a hawk.
If the low moves north and we end up with mostly rain (and maybe some storms), then consider this an exercise in preparation. If the low remains south enough to experience wintry weather, then we'll have some advance notice.
Psalm 148:8
Member
12z ICON looking like the 6Z GFS ensembles.. but with less qpf.
Grand Poo Bah
Member
Max has definitely been hyping this system up like crazy. Andy Hill's response made me LOL.
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I am reminded by this of Jeff Haby's hints on winter weather prediction.
sak
Member
power outages lasting months or longer is pure clickbait. andy should have latched on to that part of the ridiculousness.
there's actually a pretty decent chance somebody somewhere gets 1.5" of ice.
there's actually a pretty decent chance somebody somewhere gets 1.5" of ice.
Kds86z
Member
Yeah. Uh wth?.. lol, with power outages lasting months or longer. Come on, you know better..
Grand Poo Bah
Member
Yeah, the truth of the situation is if you're adequately prepared and supplied, this storm will be a ton of fun for the vast majority of people. Losing all the food in your fridge and freezer due to an extended power outage will suck a lot of the fun out of it, but it's certainly not the apocalypse lots of people are making it out to be.
The biggest killers during winter storms are heart attacks from shoveling driveways. Not even joking. It's hard work. My best advice would be to do it multiple times. It's MUCH easier and faster to shovel 2 inches 5 times, than 10 inches one time.
12Z GFS continues the northern trend of the ice line in central Alabama, but CAD puts GA further in the icebox. A fairly awful look for the ATL metro and east.
Much more in line with the Euro on the snow - the trend is further north.
Much more in line with the Euro on the snow - the trend is further north.
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