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January 23-25th Winter Wx

Meanwhile, farther North...this is hardcore stuff (from Duluth AFD)

Behind the Wednesday clipper, a hefty cold air mass is expected to
drop into the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region
through the weekend with 850mb temperatures dropping into the -30s
Celsius. This is expected to result in several days of some very
cold surface temperatures beginning Wednesday evening through at
least Sunday midday, when temperatures are unlikely to rise much
above zero, if at all. The coldest days of this period are expected
to be Friday and Saturday. Thursday and Friday, brisk northwest
winds are expected which will lead to the coldest winds chills of
this period Thursday night into Friday morning. Wind chill values of
-40 to -50F are possible. The coldest actual air temperatures are
expected Friday night into Saturday morning when widespread
temperatures of -30 to -40F are forecast. There is a 5 to 10% chance
that some of the local coldest spots could drop to -50F actual
temperature on Saturday morning.
 
The 12z GFS total snow, if it verifies, would be the highest in the history of Monroe County, MS. You have to go all the way back to January 1936 to find where Monroe County had 11.1 inches of snow.
 
I have been busy for awhile but checked the models today and said "wow this could be catastrophic"
Needs teasing out, but definitely keeping a sharp eye on this and I'm stocking up on firewood immediately.
 
I live in central southern Kentucky, very close to what would be considered “southeastern KY”, and some of these model outputs for next week for our area look downright historic.

I actually told my parents earlier to try and do their grocery run for next week tomorrow.

We all know weather is dynamic and models can change, but one thing I’m telling everyone is even the floor for this event is still very Siginificant for our area. Even the lowest output being shown on some of the ensembles right now would be the most significant snow event we’ve had in probably a decade around these parts.
 
Atomz said:
That is true. Snowmageddon 2014 was awful. I don’t think that it will be a repeat of that though. They did a pretty good job keeping up with last year’s winter storm on Jan 10th, and they’ve gotten better communicating with the public.
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Agree, though all of that chaos was with a few inches of snow. We could be talking about either 2 inches of ice or a foot+ of snow - this could be a dangerous event even for those who are prepared for it.
ColdFront said:
I live in central southern Kentucky, very close to what would be considered “southeastern KY”, and some of these model outputs for next week for our area look downright historic.

I actually told my parents earlier to try and do their grocery run for next week tomorrow.

We all know weather is dynamic and models can change, but one thing I’m telling everyone is even the floor for this event is still very Siginificant for our area. Even the lowest output being shown on some of the ensembles right now would be the most significant snow event we’ve had in probably a decade around these parts.
Click to expand...
Best wishes, stay safe up there!
 
Clancy said:
Agree, though all of that chaos was with a few inches of snow. We could be talking about either 2 inches of ice or a foot+ of snow - this could be a dangerous event even for those who are prepared for it.

Best wishes, stay safe up there!
Click to expand...
You too! Hopefully it’s more snow than ice for you all as well.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
What's y'all's thoughts on which models is portraying the cold best? Euro or GFS?
Click to expand...
Neither are all that great at forecasting shallow CAD situations. IJS.
 
Blountwolf said:
It's a "choose your own mess" kind of GEFS ensemble.

*PIC SNIPPED FOR BREVITY*
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Is it just me or are the GFS ensembles picking up on that warm nose the Euro was showing?
 
GFS ticked back north again, unsuprisingly. Again, I do think that areas south of TN have a good shot at seeing a big ol' wallop of wintry precip, but I'm starting to think that I-20 and areas north are probably going to get a really slushy, icy mess. Definetly not something that anybody wants to deal with.

Seriously, if were going to have winter weather, why can't it just be snow? :C
 
lake.effect said:
Meanwhile, farther North...this is hardcore stuff (from Duluth AFD)

Behind the Wednesday clipper, a hefty cold air mass is expected to
drop into the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region
through the weekend with 850mb temperatures dropping into the -30s
Celsius. This is expected to result in several days of some very
cold surface temperatures beginning Wednesday evening through at
least Sunday midday, when temperatures are unlikely to rise much
above zero, if at all. The coldest days of this period are expected
to be Friday and Saturday. Thursday and Friday, brisk northwest
winds are expected which will lead to the coldest winds chills of
this period Thursday night into Friday morning. Wind chill values of
-40 to -50F are possible. The coldest actual air temperatures are
expected Friday night into Saturday morning when widespread
temperatures of -30 to -40F are forecast. There is a 5 to 10% chance
that some of the local coldest spots could drop to -50F actual
temperature on Saturday morning.
Click to expand...

And yet, I still wanna move up there some day.
 
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