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January 23-25th Winter Wx

Blountwolf said:
Good grief - 12Z GFS puts me under either ZR or SN for 63 hours here in west blount county AL - hrs 87-150. I mean - What?

Edit: 0.63 of ice and 10inches of snow. Oh heck no. Time for this system to get some fail modes, please.
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your best fail mode is the warm nose. a 50 mile shift in the RN/ZR line and you could have significantly less impact. i'm in north shelby county and really think there's a decent chance this is not that disastrous of a storm for me. that warm nose could do serious work.

...or it could not and this be the biggest winter storm here in 33 years.
 
sak said:
your best fail mode is the warm nose. a 50 mile shift in the RN/ZR line and you could have significantly less impact. i'm in north shelby county and really think there's a decent chance this is not that disastrous of a storm for me. that warm nose could do serious work.

...or it could not and this be the biggest winter storm here in 33 years.
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Oh, absolutely - I've watched so many of these systems over the years that I'm used to it being a close call, and having WAA ruin (for those who love snow) the whole event. So far, the models seem to have been trending the opposite direction - colder and more snow vs warmer and rain. I'd rather get all snow or all rain, the in between area I would rather not be in. I think that's basically true for everyone.
 
Speaking of warm nose..

1768945100107.png


<fingers crossed that will be enough to get the surface temps above freezing>

But that also shows the low tracking along or just north of the coast. To say that is a favorable scenario for winter mischief in N/AL is an understatement.
 
You can definitely tell the CAD is in effect on both the EURO and GFS. if there is a wedge idk if it's going to beat out that CAD for portions of central Alabama tbh. The 18z GFS has a decent wedge.
 
Happy Hour GFS just dumps so much ice into central Alabama.

Such a sharp gradient but 4 days out, consistency is all we should get wrapped up on. 50-100 mile shift is going to happen for better or for worse.

As always ”0z will be telling….” as they used to say on the old Eastern board……
 
On a lot of these models it honestly seems like things are shifting just a little bit south, if we're looking for a trend, a couple days ago looked like southern Tennessee Valley now a bit closer to I-20
 
Quote from NWS Peachtree City:

Focusing on the probabilistic information for now.
--> 40-50% chance for 0.5" or greater of ice accumulation through
the weekend for the areas north of I-20.

--> 25-30% chance for 0.75" or greater of ice accumulation through
the weekend for the areas north of I-20.

--> 15-20% chance for 1" or greater of ice accumulation through the
weekend for the areas north of I-20.

--> 30-45% chance for 2" or greater of snow accumulation through the
weekend for the areas north of I-20.

Please take note of how this has ramped up from yesterdays
discussion. What we want you to focus on is being prepared for a
potentially high impact event this weekend. We will likely see more
changes over the coming days but please make sure you have a plan to
endure this event which could include power outages.

NWS seems to really want to hammer in that this is going to be quite significant.
 
Atomz said:
Quote from NWS Peachtree City:

Focusing on the probabilistic information for now.
--> 40-50% chance for 0.5" or greater of ice accumulation through
the weekend for the areas north of I-20.

--> 25-30% chance for 0.75" or greater of ice accumulation through
the weekend for the areas north of I-20.

--> 15-20% chance for 1" or greater of ice accumulation through the
weekend for the areas north of I-20.

--> 30-45% chance for 2" or greater of snow accumulation through the
weekend for the areas north of I-20.

Please take note of how this has ramped up from yesterdays
discussion. What we want you to focus on is being prepared for a
potentially high impact event this weekend. We will likely see more
changes over the coming days but please make sure you have a plan to
endure this event which could include power outages.

NWS seems to really want to hammer in that this is going to be quite significant.
Click to expand...
To be fair, the Atlanta area has a reputation for responding particularly poorly to winter events, even well-forecasted ones. Considering how life-threatening this storm could be, I'm not surprised they're stressing the urgency here.
 
Clancy said:
To be fair, the Atlanta area has a reputation for responding particularly poorly to winter events, even well-forecasted ones. Considering how life-threatening this storm could be, I'm not surprised they're stressing the urgency here.
Click to expand...
That is true. Snowmageddon 2014 was awful. I don’t think that it will be a repeat of that though. They did a pretty good job keeping up with last year’s winter storm on Jan 10th, and they’ve gotten better communicating with the public.
 
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