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  • Current Tropical Systems
    Erin

Tropical Storm Erin

wx_guy said:
And intensity errors so far (not very helpful since it's a minimal tropical storm, but still...)

View attachment 45939


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And the GFS for reference --

View attachment 45941



The lower intensity may help it skirt further west and south. We'll have to see.
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I think the longer it spends in the dry air short term the more west it will get. A far enough push to the southwest would get it out of the deepest layer of dry air allowing it to temporarily strengthen. The questions are when does a southwest jog reach its peak? How long does it remain on a southwest jog before turning back on a west northwest jog? Does the western flank of the Bermuda high extend farther west before the turn? Is the trough in the northeast Atlantic strong enough? So many questions left unanswered by this, but my feeling is any rapid intensification would likely not be until it reaches north of the Antilles around or past 60 west. We’ll have to see though.
 
N0mz said:
How much of an error in this stage of a TC is really “significant”?
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Great question, and I'd love for any mets on the forum to reply. In my view, it's more about watching trends and seeing if there's a pull one way or another versus the models.
 

The forecast discussion makes it very obvious that they may have to shift the forecast track even further south and west if trends continue. I think the Antilles and Bahamas are firmly in play now, and the U.S. could be if trends continue.
 
Dead Silence GIF by Studios 2016

yeah the crickets are so loud we can hear them in this thread
 
wx_guy said:
*crickets* Seems like excitement over Erin has totally died out lol curious to what the next few days shows. I'll post more soon.
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1755041470808.png

I've been disinterestedly checking on Erin from time to time today. A mid-level moisture vs dry air slugfest. Really depends on how that all mixes out - right now the pocket of dry is being squeezed from two sides, so moistening. A tough time firing convection, but a well defined swirl on vis all day.
 
Blountwolf said:
View attachment 45961

I've been disinterestedly checking on Erin from time to time today. A mid-level moisture vs dry air slugfest. Really depends on how that all mixes out - right now the pocket of dry is being squeezed from two sides, so moistening. A tough time firing convection, but a well defined swirl on vis all day.
Click to expand...
fun fact that i thought i would share im not sure if you could do this on any other app like radar scope or radar omega but on weather wise with looking at the satellite you can put it into motion so how cool is that i just thought it was too neat to share you do have to use mesoscale 1 which is only looking a rectangle shaped view of a tropical system
 
KakashiHatake2000 said:
fun fact that i thought i would share im not sure if you could do this on any other app like radar scope or radar omega but on weather wise with looking at the satellite you can put it into motion so how cool is that i just thought it was too neat to share you do have to use mesoscale 1 which is only looking a rectangle shaped view of a tropical system
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;) I think you'll find this better used on a computer.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-atlantic-09-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

This assumes you are on desktop, not a phone. Totally free.

They also have a close-up floater on Erin.
weather.cod.edu

COD NEXLAB: Satellite and Radar

Check out COD Meteorology's Satellite and Radar Data
weather.cod.edu weather.cod.edu
 
Blountwolf said:
View attachment 45961

I've been disinterestedly checking on Erin from time to time today. A mid-level moisture vs dry air slugfest. Really depends on how that all mixes out - right now the pocket of dry is being squeezed from two sides, so moistening. A tough time firing convection, but a well defined swirl on vis all day.
Click to expand...
Yeah, good point. Until we get to Friday or Saturday, the story will probably look a lot of the same between now and then.
 
The best model on track so far has been the HCCA FSU Supercomputer Ensemble with 24-hour errors. The most recent HCCA plot is shown, fading into oblivion as its accuracy dwindles (it uses an exponential decay algorithm based on its accuracy so far for Erin). It shows a northward component to Erin's movement within the next 24 hours and a northwest component after 96 hours. Beyond that, it "fades" and becomes less trustworthy.

1755046777735.png





The HAFSA and B are off by ~100 miles from the 24-hour forecast 24 hours ago, with the storm more west and north of both.

1755047010439.png
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The NHC Official forecast track error has doubled in the past 12 hours, from about 18 miles to 37 miles, given a 24-hour error. Time will tell if this is significant or not, but the southward motion is definitely seen (it's below 17 N now).

1755047237537.png


Thanks everyone, I'll update again tomorrow. Hopefully overnight data fills in another piece or two of the puzzle.
 
It definitely seems like this storm has an Erin to run, as it is speeding off to just south of due west.
 
Atlantic said:
It definitely seems like this storm has an Erin to run, as it is speeding off to just south of due west.
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One thing I will say because this system is racing any southwest jog can gain a lot of south latitude in mileage in a short period of time than your typical storm if it stays on a southwest jog for any period of time.
 
Two of the best-performing models so far, the HCCA and the Google DeepMind AI, both have Erin turning to the WNW and NW over the next 24-36 hours, starting today. If that happens and the extent to which that happens will be huge for the ramifications further down the road.
 
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