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Severe Weather Threat June 15-23

12Z GFS is again a potentially interesting setup for the E IA/S WI/N IL region on Wednesday the 18th if the warm sector can destabilize adequately (the model portrays a lot of precipitation ongoing through the afternoon). That's a nice negatively tilted shortwave in the 500mb flow with a corresponding 998mb surface low over the IA/MN border at 21Z Wednesday.
 
i know that things have to start out as something and dont want to sound like a broken record but i just hope its a linear system with wind and hail but not really strong winds and hail with wednesday and the other weather setups since we are in june and high dew points and instability and everything so might get some nice shelfies or shelf cloud photos
 
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So I’m guessing the wind bags would be situated up there since the jet stream dips in from the pnw and then goes up into canada just as long as they aren’t 70+ mph winds and and large hail but some brief short lived photogenic tornadoes in the middle of nowhere would be nice
Sorry I worded that wrong but I’m sure everyone knew what I was meaning to say in regards to hopefully short lived brief photogenic tornadoes in open fields but none of the 70+ mph and big hail stuff with these wind bags
 
0Z NAM brings an organized convective system through a strongly unstable environment in E IA/S WI/N IL Tuesday afternoon/evening. Verbatim would be mostly a wind/derecho threat but could see some potential for supercells along the southern flank especially if some outflow boundary shenanigans get involved.
 
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