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Severe Weather Threat June 5-9

Steve McCauley​

2h ·
Isolated t-storms are possible this afternoon and early evening as heat and high humidity combine allowing a few storms to pop. These pop-up storms will be just a small preview of what is to come. By far, the MAIN action arrives after the sun goes down as a LARGE cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms approaches from the NW and sweeps through most of north Texas tonight.
Storms will be capabale of all severe weather modes. The main tornado threat, however, will be from widely scattered supercell thunderstorms across the TX Panhandle/West Oklahoma late this afternoon, stretching into far NW sections of north Texas early this evening. And then all the storms will merge together to form one giant cluster of heavy rain, pockets of hail, and widespread high winds.
The leading edge of the main storm cluster will sweep into the NW Metroplex after 10 PM and the leading edge should clear the SE Metroplex by 1 AM. However, that will not be the end of the rain. There will be additional not-as-strong storms that will fire behind the main cluster keeping rain chances going a few more hours after the severe line passes.
The tricky part of this forecast is the precise DIRECTION this large storm cluster will move when it gets to north Texas and will determine if this will be a 75% coverage or a 100% coverage. The upper-level steering winds will be blowing to the east/northeast which will try to keep much - but not all - of the action north of I-20.
HOWEVER, the broad area of rain-cooled air (called the "cold pool") produced by this large storm complex will blast to the southeast and will try to pull the cluster much farther to the south in spite of the upper-level winds blowing in an opposing direction. This will subject most of north Texas - including ALL of the Metroplex - to this storm event, though once again, not all Metroplex cities will be soaked with heavy rainfall totals.
This forecast assumes the cold pool will ultimately dominate and overwhelm the upper-level winds and drive the storms to the southeast.


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Gave a bathtub a spot clean and go bag's ready to go.
Tonight seems like a - to put it nicely- crap sandwich.
Can't sleep on the 5% TOR risk because worse has spawned from measly 2% risks and the damaging wind + hail are nothing to sneeze at
 
Found this tidbit notable from the 01Z Day 1 outlook update. SPC sounds less confident in a high-end derecho developing tonight.

Convection allowing model output has varied concerning the potential
convective evolution into and through the overnight hours across
parts of northern Texas. Model output indicating some of the more
intense potential evolutions appear to have backed off at least
some, in intensity. Regardless, there has been a consistent signal
that ongoing convection across the Texas Panhandle into Red River
vicinity will gradually consolidate, accompanied by a strengthening
cold pool and potential for the evolution of a notable MCV with
intensifying rear inflow. Given the environment, this still appears
possible, with the development of one or two sustained swaths of
potentially damaging wind gusts most probable near and south of the
Red River, across north central into northeastern Texas overnight.

..Kerr.. 06/09/2025
 
Oof

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN JONES AND FISHER COUNTIES...

At 816 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Sylvester,
moving southeast at 45 mph.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR NORTH CENTRAL FISHER COUNTY.

HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and softball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses
will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect
extensive tree damage and power outages.

This severe storm will be near...
Sylvester and Mccaulley around 820 PM CDT.
Noodle around 825 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include The
Intersection Of Us-
180 And Ranch Road 126, Truby, Hitson, Tuxedo, Capitola, and Busby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.
 
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