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Severe Weather 2025

Very impressive set of supercells in south west Tx, all of them initiated off the convergence boundary situated along a surface vort max.

Plenty of vorticity and low level vertical stretching, this is the main driver for tornadic supercells. The background kinematics are high cape/low shear.

The tornado parameters themselves are low due to lack of helicity and LLJ.

Mesoscale interactions in right moving supercells are the ones with the best tornado potential.
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TheWeatherAnalyst said:
What he’s asking is an extremely valid question. With the kind of anomalous deep surface low and long wave trough geometry that was in place on 3/14, if that lead shortwave a few days earlier hadn’t scoured the moisture too much, you would have had an extremely large aerial area with sky high parameters and extremely favorable storm mode. Those features are what historically yields super outbreaks. Both days had extremely high ceilings, and as high impact as those days were, they didn’t hit their ceiling. I mean, we had a met on here from NWS Birmingham the day before those events saying it was in the realm of possibility we would see a super outbreak over those two days. Both of those days could have easily produced a Palm Sunday or 4/3/74 or 4/27/11 if they hit their ceilings with the right environment and no flies in the ointment.

That’s what makes a super outbreak though, it requires the utmost maximization at the background teleconnection state, the synoptic scale, the mesoscale, and storm scale.
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I thought going in that the most likely ceiling for March 14th would have been a March 31, 2023 type event with multiple violent tornadoes. March 31, 2023 was, if I recall, the outbreak that produced the most tornadoes in a single day behind only April 27, 2011. We just got incredibly lucky that the tornadoes that occurred that day didn’t hit many major areas at peak intensity.

The modeled environment for March 15th, which led to the rare issuance of a Day 2 high risk, I felt was much more analogous to 4/27.

As y’all discussed, we got incredibly lucky that both days didn’t reach their full potential.
 
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