Enhanced Fujita Ratings Debate Thread

[OH-IOan]

The perfectly rated high-end EF4s we've gotten this year made me shrug off a few questionable calls up to this point, but this last outbreak has laid these systemic problems out as plainly as can be.

It might be time to throw in the towel on this one. There is no fixing this system. Idk what the solution is any more. Have tornado ratings ever been in a worse place than they are right now? Genuine question. Because I not only think we're currently in the worst period of ratings ever, I don't think it's even close.

2003-2007 is #2, but it's important to remember, this Texas Tech, Engineering Czar, rudderless group of morons (respectfully) was responsible for that period as well. The EF scale was literally invented to solve the problems THEY created in those years.

Edit:
I have more to say.

Why are EF5 ratings hidden away by things that NEVER happen? Seriously, it's like if hurricanes could ONLY be rated Category 5 if they hit Cuba. Then people defend it by saying "Well 150 mph+ hurricanes very likely still happen, they just haven't hit the right country! It's an unfixable flaw, but it's the best we can do."

It. makes. no. f*cking. sense. Why aren't surveyors just using their eyeballs? You can't just cover your eyes and ignore ground scouring and tree damage this significant. A swath of Grinnell was grinded into powder, but the absence of anchor bolts makes that unquantifiable? This tornado probably had 300 mph+ winds in certain areas, but 140 mph is the highest it can be rated because of "the scale", and surveyors apparent lack of a third grade logic. How did they make it through college?!

While I'm at it, I'm so sick of terrible science constantly being waved off as "the scale's" fault. You're an adult with a PHD! Use your brain!

.....*sighs*.... ok, i'm done. Thanks guys. I needed that.....

Let's play a game. What was this damage rated?

Low-end EF2. It's crazy.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Ethan Moriarty posts about Rochelle: He doubles down on EF4, and states that 200 mph was an overestimation and the true winds were about 170-180 mph. Looks like Rochelle is rapidly exiting the "universally recognized EF5 candidate" category - which is a shame because it absolutely was an EF5. Oh well.

Oh man... Gotta love good ol "boundary layers" and "surrounding contexts" beating out actual math and reason.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

[IMAGE REDACTED BY O-5 COUNCIL]
Oh man... Gotta love good ol "boundary layers" and "surrounding contexts" beating out actual math and reason.

And just you wait till you see this...


Remember when I said that I didn't fully trust Ethan Moriarty because he had "a bit too much ASCE in him"? This is what I mean by that.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

And just you wait till you see this...


Remember when I said that I didn't fully trust Ethan Moriarty because he had "a bit too much ASCE in him"? This is what I mean by that.

Oh my aching brain... I hate everything about that tweet. You're right and I concede. He's no good.

Also our good friend Nick Kras has a post criticizing the Marion, Illinois rating with 140,000 views. I found this reply particularly interesting. Tim Marshall disagreeing with good ratings? Who woulda thought?

 

[OH-IOan]

Oh my aching brain... I hate everything about that tweet. You're right and I concede. He's no good.

Also our good friend Nick Kras has a post criticizing the Marion, Illinois rating with 140,000 views. I found this reply particularly interesting. Tim Marshall disagreeing with good ratings? Who woulda thought?

View attachment 43069

Okay, the Marion rating was likely too high, I'll give him that. One of the rare times I'll agree with Marshall on a controversial rating.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Oh my aching brain... I hate everything about that tweet. You're right and I concede. He's no good.

Also our good friend Nick Kras has a post criticizing the Marion, Illinois rating with 140,000 views. I found this reply particularly interesting. Tim Marshall disagreeing with good ratings? Who woulda thought?

Actually the correct answer re: Marion. If it didn't mean downgrading Rainsville as well, I'd maybe even consider Marion a 165 EF3.

On the bright side, Paducah just got added to the list of "offices likely to end the EF5 drought". Joins Little Rock, Peachtree City, Norman, Dodge City(?), Wichita(?), Jackson, Huntsville, Birmingham(?), and maybe a few others I can't name right now.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Marion wasn't too high. All other ratings are too low. That's the whole point. Clean subfloors and slabs should never be rated EF3. 190 mph is too high in the context of other ratings, but in terms of true wind speeds? not so much. We have massive, heavily funded research projects by DOW, NOAA, and Yale that draw the same conclusions. The entire culture of surveying needs to change.

Plus, clean subfloors being rated EF3 is how we get to completely demolished houses being rated EF1 and EF2. One bad decision leads to another and so on.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

This is not ok!

 

[Atlantic]

Factually??? We have several examples of likely EF5 tornadoes! Rolling Fork and several TORs this year too! Like what? Storms are not getting weaker!

View attachment 43075

This is not ok!

e

 

[TheSuckZone]

I don't think storms are getting any weaker at all. I think we have just been very fortunate that we haven't had a strike on a heavily populated area in awhile.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Factually??? We have several examples of likely EF5 tornadoes! Rolling Fork and several TORs this year too! Like what? Storms are not getting weaker!

e

We can't expect anyone outside of weather/tornado enthusiasts to understand this fact. The ratings are getting lower, so the "obvious" answer is storms are getting weaker. Herein lies the problem. We shouldn't have to be explaining to people that ratings are actually getting more strict and some weather offices are terrible at surveying. It's a complex mess even most weather enthusiasts don't understand the depths of.

 

[tornado examiner]

View attachment 43075

This is not ok!

This is one of the most ignorant tweets I’ve ever seen.
Casually ignoring
(Inhales)
Cookeville
Bassfield
Ashby
Monette
Mayfield
Black creek
Rolling fork
Matador
Barnsdall
Greenfield
Sterling city
Diaz
Lake city
London
Grinnel
And plevna

Every single one of these tornadoes was possibly capable of EF5 damage had they hit the right thing at peak strength.
No, storms are most definitely not getting weaker.
High end plains tornadoes outbreaks are the only thing that’s lessened in recent years.
But…just a few days ago the plains showed it wasn’t dead to that idea.
Yes I’m only looking at the 2020’s for this.

Idk who Connor turner is. But I know he’s silly now.

 

[Maxis_s]

Oh my aching brain... I hate everything about that tweet. You're right and I concede. He's no good.

Also our good friend Nick Kras has a post criticizing the Marion, Illinois rating with 140,000 views. I found this reply particularly interesting. Tim Marshall disagreeing with good ratings? Who woulda thought?

View attachment 43069

190mph is a tad too high for Marion but it's acceptable enough. I'd give it 180mph personally although I'm no expert by any means. 170 seems a bit low for a cleanly swept slab with decent contextuals.

View attachment 43075

This is not ok!

"No tornado has cut EF5 strength in over a decade"
You're just gonna ignore the numerous tornadoes with recorded windspeeds exceeding 200mph, and 300mph in Greenfield's case?
"...nor have there been as many casualties anywhere remotely close to the storms over a decade ago."
Is that a result of better warnings or weaker storms? I can't check right now if years in the early 2010s (excluding 2011, obviously) were deadlier than nowadays but it's probably only a marginal decrease.

Why do so many people have absolutely outrageous takes to justify the NWS's objectively flawed and ridiculous standards and methods when it comes to surveying tornadoes? They think the NWS is a perfect organization that is absent of human error and will become human shields to ignore or deflect from legitimate criticism (Whitman tornado, Grinnell/Vilonia/Mayfield etc. surveys with poor DIs/rating justifications, New Wren/Smithville etc. with little or no surveying) and it's become particularly extreme in recent times because of the cuts to the NWS.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I don't think storms are getting any weaker at all. I think we have just been very fortunate that we haven't had a strike on a heavily populated area in awhile.

I agree, but a not so fun fact is the Mayfield and Rolling Fork tornadoes killed more people than the last EF5 (Moore 2013). In terms of EF5 structures, we just recently realized in here the only EF scale DI to ever receive an EF5 rating has been houses. No other structure listed on the EF scale has received that rating. There were plenty of contextual EF5 indicators (pre-2013), but now there's an unwritten, widely adopted rule that contextual indicators can no longer be used.

 

[AJS]

There have literally been numerous tornadoes that have legitimately produced EF5 level contextual/structural damage since Moore. Just to list the most obvious ones that 100% reached EF5 strength.


Vilonia
Rochelle
Chapman
Camp Crook
Bassfield
Mayfield
Rolling Fork
Greenfield
Diaz
Grinnell

These tornadoes have 100% reached EF5 strength at some point or caused EF5 level damage.

 

[tornado examiner]

Btw di’s are being filled in for the London tornado. Let’s see what they have to say for the EF4 damage.

 

[Maxis_s]

Not necessarily related to the EF scale but I'm still wondering what it'll take for North Platte to finally explain why the Whitman tornado (and the subsequent 90mph+ severe thunderstorms) weren't warned. It's still absolutely unbelievable that we don't know what the hell happened.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

This is one of the most ignorant tweets I’ve ever seen.
Casually ignoring
(Inhales)
Cookeville
Bassfield
Ashby
Monette
Mayfield
Black creek
Rolling fork
Matador
Barnsdall
Greenfield
Sterling city
Diaz
Lake city
London
Grinnel
And plevna

Every single one of these tornadoes was possibly capable of EF5 damage had they hit the right thing at peak strength.
No, storms are most definitely not getting weaker.
High end plains tornadoes outbreaks are the only thing that’s lessened in recent years.
But…just a few days ago the plains showed it wasn’t dead to that idea.
Yes I’m only looking at the 2020’s for this.

Idk who Connor turner is. But I know he’s silly now.

Vilonia
Washington
Rochelle-Fairdale
Goldsby
Chickasha
Chapman
Tuscaloosa
Louisville
Pilger

The list goes on and on

 

[Maxis_s]

Tuscaloosa

It's still so incredibly stupid that one survey team found EF5 damage and they still just ignored it and decided to not rate it EF5. I still don't know the context behind that decision.

 

[tornado examiner]

I so love it when surveyors survey and upload as many di’s as possible to the dat for a major tornado. Nws Jackson did good and they had help from nws Nashville and Louisville I think.