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Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

Muwx said:
Because I can look at current satellite and see that NC ok and SC KS are still socked in clouds and there they are high clouds further west. I’m not saying it will b*st the set up but it’s something to watch.
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Unfortunately this is not one of those times where cloud cover could b*st a set up.

Could cover kills sets ups because it denies destabilization in the OWS which can deny convection in the OWS.

Obviously, convection today is solely dryline convection, which is not covered in fog or overcast. Cape values in Oklahoma along the dryline are over 5000j/kg already and tornado parameters are up to 9 in some spots; with helicity values up to 200m2/s2 and the LLJ is already starting to intensify.

My main point is that if today relied on OWS supercells then the cloud cover could’ve been an issue. But because todays tornado risk comes from dryline convection, the cloud cover doesn’t matter at all.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Unfortunately this is not one of those times where cloud cover could b*st a set up.

Could cover kills sets ups because it denies destabilization in the OWS which can deny convection in the OWS.

Obviously, convection today is solely dryline convection, which is not covered in fog or overcast. Cape values in Oklahoma along the dryline are over 5000j/kg already and tornado parameters are up to 9 in some spots; with helicity values up to 200m2/s2 and the LLJ is already starting to intensify.

My main point is that if today relied on OWS supercells then the cloud cover could’ve been an issue. But because todays tornado risk comes from dryline convection, the cloud cover doesn’t matter at all.
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If the warm sector stays socked in clouds like it currently is, it will absolutely limit the outcome. It might not keep them from initiating but it will absolutely limit available energy.
 
Muwx said:
If the warm sector stays socked in clouds like it currently is, it will absolutely limit the outcome. It might not keep them from initiating but it will absolutely limit available energy.
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Cape values in Oklahoma are already exceeding 5000j/kg, I’m not sure where you’re seeing cloud cover limiting potential energy.

The inversion layer will prevent OWS convection even without the cloud cover over it.

It’s the dryline that will be initiating all convection today, the only real failure mode is coverage and storms growing upscale too quickly where they initiate.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Cape values in Oklahoma are already exceeding 5000j/kg, I’m not sure where you’re seeing cloud cover limiting potential energy.

The inversion layer will prevent OWS convection even without the cloud cover over it.

It’s the dryline that will be initiating all convection today, the only real failure mode is coverage and storms growing upscale too quickly where they initiate.
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Which could lead to Oklahoma firing way too early before the kinematic support arrives. Then, cloud over is a huge concern in Kansas. This place is an echo chamber at times but people are absolutely talking about this outside of this forum
 
jiharris0220 said:
Cape values in Oklahoma are already exceeding 5000j/kg, I’m not sure where you’re seeing cloud cover limiting potential energy.

The inversion layer will prevent OWS convection even without the cloud cover over it.

It’s the dryline that will be initiating all convection today, the only real failure mode is coverage and storms growing upscale too quickly where they initiate.
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Supercells are surface based storms so I think acting like storms moving into an area of less available surface energy to feed on would have no impact on their intensity would be unwise. That cloud deck along the ks ok border is thick enough it’s actually dropped surface temps a few degrees so it bears watching. That being said, the HRRR keep initiating storms further south and south of that colder pocket so while it may limit the overall even I don’t know that it prevents a potential high end event. We also have a long ways to go before storms fire.
 
Muwx said:
Which could lead to Oklahoma firing way too early before the kinematic support arrives. Then, cloud over is a huge concern in Kansas. This place is an echo chamber at times but people are absolutely talking about this outside of this forum
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No, convection won’t initiate until the bulk of the forcing mechanism arrives, which won’t be until 3pm.

You need more than just high cape values for convective initiation.
 
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