Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

[Jbop]

Hope all chasers look in the mirror for the dominator..

 

[SmokeEater]

WFO ICT mentioning two rounds, one starting around 1-3pm local time, along and east of I-135, mainly a hail threat. The bigger round with all hazards arriving from the west after 5-6pm, with initiation possibly as far west as Dodge City.

 

[N0mz]

WFO ICT mentioning two rounds, one starting around 1-3pm local time, along and east of I-135, mainly a hail threat. The bigger round with all hazards arriving from the west after 5-6pm, with initiation possibly as far west as Dodge City.

HRRR seems to agree

 

[Kds86z]

Don’t forget the arc of supercells in the CO/NE/KS corner.

 

[ColdFront]

Moistening is ongoing. Also can see the dryline setting up with that extreme -17 3 hour change in the panhandle

 

[N0mz]

I'm alreaady seeing pockets of 4-5k surface level cape on mesoanalysis. Instability will not be a problem at all today.

 

[Kds86z]

I'm alreaady seeing pockets of 4-5k cape on mesoanalysis. Instability will not be a problem at all today.

And Trey mentioned the moisture is not “too deep” as that can be negative..

 

[joshoctober16]

in 6 hours
has it over 9+ for STP

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

gah nooo hrrr bad, its firing OK

 

[ColdFront]

After watching Trey’s analysis, I’m fully on board with today having a higher ceiling than tomorrow.

 

[AJS]

View attachment 42212
gah nooo hrrr bad, its firing OK

Wonder if they’ll expand the risk again. Unlikely though.

 

[Kds86z]

After watching Trey’s analysis, I’m fully on board with today having a higher ceiling than tomorrow.

Agree 100%. tomorrow could hold some nasty somewhere though. Large a$$ hatched.

 

[Tennie]

quite possibly the craziest updraft helicity run i have ever seen (mpas)
View attachment 42184

Looking at that somehow reminded me of those experiments that gave various drugs to spiders to see what kinds of patterns they'd produce on their spider webs.

 

[N0mz]

Tomorrow could be just as nasty as well. Picture isn't as clear though

 

[Kds86z]

Tomorrow could be just as nasty as well. Picture isn't as clear though

Maybe but not from a discrete setup

 

[TornadoFan]

Looking at that somehow reminded me of those experiments that gave various drugs to spiders to see what kinds of patterns they'd produce on their spider webs.

I'm afraid to even ask.

 

[N0mz]

Maybe but not from a discrete setup

To my amateur eye, it has a lot of the markers of a discrete setup; subtle forcing, perpendicular shear vectors, but the CAMs are all showing really linear convection.

 

[StormStalker]

Also can we please get rid of the post is too short? I know that was for the March 15, 2025 outbreak with how cluttered that thread got, but It’s on every thread now.

If folks would stop posting “sheesh”, “OMG”, “what did I miss”, “wow”. In replying to other posts or images then maybe we would consider it.

 

[N0mz]

What do we think of this crapvection in OK rn

 

[Kds86z]

Day 2

SWO from KWNS