Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[Kds86z]

 

[tempostorm]

Main focus for convection overall will probably shift into TN and northern MS. Currently, hodographs are fairly curved, but they're expected to become increasingly linear with time. Best chance for tornadoes from the QLCS/MCS activity would probably be AR/TN/MS triple point for the next several hours. After that, predominantly a damaging wind event with some embedded tornadoes perhaps. Unique factor here will be instability on the order of 1,000-1,500 j/kg across large swaths of the Southeast all the way through sunrise, which will keep storms going for a while.
View attachment 42039

do you think that line stays severe all the way to ATL area?

 

[Clancy]

do you think that line stays severe all the way to ATL area?

In some way, shape or form - probably. Doubt they'll be as strong as they'll be in TN/AL/MS, but damaging winds are definitely on the table.

 

[treypops]

do you think that line stays severe all the way to ATL area?

I don't see a huge threat that far east outside of wind, heavy rain, and maybe a little hail. Let's see what Clancy thinks.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Here's a before picture for that damage photo in Marion, IL from earlier.

 

[Kds86z]

Bad news.. not Missouri again. 7 total fatalities now

2 deaths reported in Scott County, Mo. after storms, possible tornado

Two deaths have been confirmed in Scott County after severe weather on Friday, May 16.

www.kfvs12.com

 

[treypops]

Seeing some rotation on this storm moving just past Sledge, Ms toward Senatobia. Bears watching.

 

[OH-IOan]

Apparently loss of life has been confirmed in the Somerset area. Don't have a direct news source for this yet but apparently confirmed via scanner

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Apparently loss of life has been confirmed in the Somerset area. Don't have a direct news source for this yet but apparently confirmed via scanner

Ugh! I was hoping that this wouldn’t be the case. However, significant tornadoes at night that impact communities do this all too often. Even if you do everything right, during warning ops or at home, sometimes it doesn’t change the ultimate outcome.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

A little late for the mass casualty conversation, but it basically means local EMS is overwhelmed with incoming calls, and doesn't have the resources for all of them. There are usually EMS task forces made up of ambulances, police, fire, and even some local military units, from several counties, that are mobilized when a mass casualty is declared. It doesn't say anything about fatalities, but it is still a very bad and serious thing, and means there's a lot of people calling about entrapments and critical injuries.

 

[Kds86z]

Bad news.. not Missouri again. 7 total fatalities now

2 deaths reported in Scott County, Mo. after storms, possible tornado

Two deaths have been confirmed in Scott County after severe weather on Friday, May 16.

www.kfvs12.com

Southeast Missouri is just getting slammed 2025.

10 reported fatalities I am seeing some places total but can’t find confirmation other 3,

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

900,000 people currently without power.

 

[Clancy]

Some semi-discrete clusters forming in southern Tennessee. Good chance they fizzle or just grow upscale, but interesting nonetheless.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

View of the ST. Louis tornado from the Western windows of the Gateway Arch

 

[andyhb]

Deaths confirmed in London KY.

 

[Kds86z]

When is last time that part of Kentucky saw such a significant tornado?

 

[andyhb]

When is last time that part of Kentucky saw such a significant tornado?

Likely 3/2/2012. There were several destructive/deadly tornadoes in E KY that day.

 

[JPWX]

RRFS wins again. Current radar vs. 21z run valid at 1am.

 

[OH-IOan]

With multiple deaths and heavy damage in several towns in KY, I'd say the Somerset-London-Manchester tornado is one of the more significant tornadoes we've seen since at least Mayfield.