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Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
Ozonelayer
Member
Broyles has been on a roll recently. First April 2nd and now this.
UpperLevelLOL
Member
Probably should've been a high
US_Highway15
Member
New SPC mesoscale update:
"A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS WILL INCLUDE INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG, POTENTIALLY
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STORMS GROW
INTO LARGER CLUSTERS.
..01Z UPDATE
SEASONALLY DEEP CYCLONE IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. EARLY-EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUPPORTS THIS WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN MN. MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING INTO/THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, BUT THE PRIMARY ZONE OF NOTEWORTHY ASCENT IS
CURRENTLY AIDING AN ELONGATED CORRIDOR OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM
CENTRAL INDIANA, SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TX,
WHERE ONLY THE SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EVIDENT.
MULTIPLE LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR,
ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS ZONE
IS STRONGLY SHEARED, STRONGLY BUOYANT, AND ADEQUATELY FORCED FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF SEVERE SUPERCELLS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE ALSO
LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THROUGH LATE EVENING, THE PRIMARY
CORRIDOR FOR THE MOST CONCENTRATED SEVERE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LATER TONIGHT, SOME POTENTIAL FOR
UPSCALE GROWTH MAY YIELD A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH AN ATTENDANT
SEVERE RISK, INCLUDING ALL SEVERE HAZARDS."
"A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS WILL INCLUDE INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG, POTENTIALLY
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STORMS GROW
INTO LARGER CLUSTERS.
..01Z UPDATE
SEASONALLY DEEP CYCLONE IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. EARLY-EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUPPORTS THIS WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN MN. MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING INTO/THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, BUT THE PRIMARY ZONE OF NOTEWORTHY ASCENT IS
CURRENTLY AIDING AN ELONGATED CORRIDOR OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM
CENTRAL INDIANA, SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TX,
WHERE ONLY THE SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EVIDENT.
MULTIPLE LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR,
ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS ZONE
IS STRONGLY SHEARED, STRONGLY BUOYANT, AND ADEQUATELY FORCED FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF SEVERE SUPERCELLS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE ALSO
LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THROUGH LATE EVENING, THE PRIMARY
CORRIDOR FOR THE MOST CONCENTRATED SEVERE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LATER TONIGHT, SOME POTENTIAL FOR
UPSCALE GROWTH MAY YIELD A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH AN ATTENDANT
SEVERE RISK, INCLUDING ALL SEVERE HAZARDS."
Shakespeare 2016
Member
I command SPC to give Broyles a raise.
US_Highway15
Member
I don't understand this sentiment. What would a high risk have changed? I'm genuinely curious.
PDS tornado warning for for robards Kentucky
TornadoFan
Member
So they're still not ruling out anymore discrete storms?
UpperLevelLOL
Member
Wouldn't have "changed" anything, but this event most likely would've verified a high risk
jiharris0220
Member
Ozonelayer
Member
Some could still form in Central KY to be fair.
Kds86z
Member
March 14 was MDT
US_Highway15
Member
There's literally nothing on the ground, it's just a shelf cloud. I have no idea what their thinking is issuing a PDS warning.
Kds86z
Member
Well we got our first ef3 in May tonight no doubt.
Another downstream one like earlier today. I think there confident in it cycling
As we've seen several other cases of, this TORP is radar-indicated. I think it's something WFOs must've started doing a few years ago, it seems like a recent development.