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Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

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For those paying attention in IL/IN, new MD just got released. SPC telling people to not consider putting the fries in the bag yet in IL/IN.

"AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 152350Z - 160115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EMBEDDED
TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF SEVERE STORMS, INCLUDING SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, IS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS FAR
EASTERN WISCONSIN -- POSING AN ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE RISK. AS AN
OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD, THIS LINE OF STORMS, AND
POTENTIALLY NEW STORMS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM-ADVECTION PLUME, WILL
OVERSPREAD WESTERN/CENTRAL LOWER MI AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EARLIER DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
(MIDDLE/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS) BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION, 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ORIENTED MOSTLY PERPENDICULAR
TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF SEVERE STORMS WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL
SUPPORT EMBEDDED TORNADOES, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
THE AREA. "
 
Illinois storms are entering an increasingly unstable environment now. LCLS are well over 1500 feet in Northern Illinois, and get lower further south. However, helicity also falls off significantly in middle and southern Illinois. I personally think the tornado threat is relatively non existent in Illinois tonight. LCLs aren't much better in Michigan, but there's still plenty of time after sunset for temps to fall closer to dew points before storms arrive.

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Grand Poo Bah said:
Illinois storms are entering an increasingly unstable environment now. LCLS are well over 1500 feet in Northern Illinois, and get lower further south. However, helicity also falls off significantly in middle and southern Illinois. I personally think the tornado threat is relatively non existent in Illinois tonight. LCLs aren't much better in Michigan, but there's still plenty of time after sunset for temps to fall closer to dew points before storms arrive.

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I understand in a way why the SPC wants to expand the watch, but I just don't see the appeal of these storms like they do, including the environment. I just feel like as they get further east, they'll die, but more likely I'll just eat my words. Perhaps I also have just become insanely numb to outflow dominant, non tornadic storms, like the usual here in northern IN.
 
Welp, that kind of sucked. Got on the storm in southern Columbia County just before 5 (subtle couplet over Arlington here, which it maintained for a bit as I followed it northeast).

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I got a brief view of a fairly ominous-looking wall cloud over County Rd. B west of Rio, but it quickly fell apart and was never tornado-warned. My storm then seemed to get absorbed into the forward flank of the one that then went tornado-warned just east of Columbus, while I was at a gas station in Fall River trying to shelter from wraparound hail (biggest stones I saw were about quarter-size, just a couple of them, but I hate getting into hail because I would *prefer* not to trash the vehicle which my wife and I are still paying off for the next several years). I got through Columbus where the sirens were screaming, onto SR-73 and then US 151 north. However, I was about 6 miles to the west with no view as the Juneau tornado happened. I gave up after that and started for home.

Pics and video to come at some point later.
 
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