Severe Weather Threat 4/28-4/30

[AJS]

 

[lake.effect]

Fairbault storm is showing intense rotation

 

[AJS]

Fairbault storm is showing intense rotation

Where is that?

 

[eep]

Fairbault storm is showing intense rotation

I think that that part of the line may begin to diverge. The tornado threat may begin pretty imminently.

 

[Clancy]

That's the look of a tornadic QLCS supercell. Really impressive the last several scans.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Have to wonder if the LCL heights are just cooperating at the moment. I recall someone saying that the cooling towards sundown could help aid in storms becoming more rooted at the surface. Perhaps the closer to dark we get, the more storms will rotate.

The surface low is supposed to accelerate after sundown as well. Blue skies and sunshine currently here in central Iowa, so I wonder how much that will increase the CAPE situation.

 

[pr0t0genluvswEeather]

hey guys, I recommend watching this livestream:

I really think this may be helpful

 

[Maxis_s]

Models have been showing some strong supercells in southern Minnesota behind this initial line all day. Storms may be in the moderate risk currently, but the conditions were never predicted to be the ripest until 5-7pm. There's going to be plenty of helicity along that dry line.

View attachment 40618

If you look at the thermodynamics on those storms behind the line you'll see that they're not tornadic whatsoever.

 

[Clancy]

Pronounced inflow notch there. I'm hoping it threads the gap between Medford and Faribault, or even better, doesn't produce anything at all.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

3 separate overshooting tops on the Kansas storm now

 

[AJS]

Why can I already smell WXTwitter going nuts right now lol.

 

[WaryWarren]

Pronounced inflow notch there. I'm hoping it threads the gap between Medford and Faribault, or even better, doesn't produce anything at all.
View attachment 40622

Furball Farm is in the crosshairs. Poor kitties.

 

[AJS]

Furball Farm is in the crosshairs. Poor kitties.

Omg no I love cats. Mine passed away this past January.

 

[Tennie]

Why can I already smell WXTwitter going nuts right now lol.

Personally speaking, I'd rather see the B-word come to pass than see a violent tornado go through a populated area. I suppose that makes me notably more sane than the vast majority of WXTwatter (and yes, "Twatter" is what that hellsite should've been called!).

 

[Kds86z]

Iowa warning and Minnesota just popped.

 

[Tennie]

Tornado Warning issued north of Emmetsburg, IA:

 

[A Guy]

Why can I already smell WXTwitter going nuts right now lol.

This is the kind of 'oh no, people on the internet have different opinions' posting I was alluding to earlier.

 

[Tanner]

Significant tornado likely about to occur near Chapman Kansas. Those cells have rooted to the surface and have strong upper-level rotation.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

If you look at the thermodynamics on those storms behind the line you'll see that they're not tornadic whatsoever.

Great point! Totally missed that. The area they're going to move into looks like it has less than 1000 MUCAPE currently. Is there any chance of the CAPE along the dryline due West moving into the area?



It's confusing that SB CAPE and ML CAPE is still so high as well.



Also 6000 MLCAPE in southern Iowa :O

 

[ColdFront]

mods, can we get rid of the “your message is too short” pop up? I understand that was for the 3/14 event when we were inundated with users, but now it’s just an annoyance