Severe Weather Threat 4/28-4/30

ColdFront said:
Yeah, no. Simply asking someone to further elaborate on a cheap dig attempt at some users on here isn’t aggressive. If you have an issue with my post, my DMs are open.

I’m not getting in the mud with you like you tried to get other posters to last year with your constant posts ripping on the SPC. This conversation is over
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LOL and you maintained the upper hand by closing it. Good job! Allow me to re-open it for a moment.

The whole SPC thing last year wasn't trolling, it was genuine frustration.

And yeah, I thinking "calling out" individual posters for very benign infractions like misinterpreting STP is very aggressive and frankly, a little creepy.
 
I've made the decision that if there's not a High Risk (which there won't be), or none of the main CAMs (HRRR, RAP, NAM, NAMNST) have any notable convenction along the dryline by the time sunrise comes in the morning, then I'm not chasing this setup. Just way to much uncertainty to travel 7-8+ hours.
 
US_Highway15 said:
I've made the decision that if there's not a High Risk (which there won't be), or none of the main CAMs (HRRR, RAP, NAM, NAMNST) have any notable convenction along the dryline by the time sunrise comes in the morning, then I'm not chasing this setup. Just way too much uncertainty to travel 7-8+ hours.
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If it was 3-4 hours I’d say go for it, but as you noted, 7-8 is a pretty big drive for a conditional high ceiling event.

Unrelated, I do want to note one thing. TalkWeather is a great forum and a place where I’ve personally learned a lot. My posts earlier were 100% not trying to get someone to shame or out people mistaking what STP is. My post was in response to someone taking a cheap dig at our sites user base stating that poster’s modus operandi on here are just to screenshot STP values, when that is not the case. Far from it, which is why I said name names, because I haven’t seen anyone do that on here and it was obviously just a cheap dig comment at the site. I apologize to everyone for taking away from the event tomorrow at hand.
 
WRF-NSSL is my hopium. The only one that really puts a solid, discrete cell through my target area. Although the RRFS and the WRF-ARW suggest hedging slightly north into Minnesota might not be a bad idea.

IIRC it was one or both of the WRF models that pretty well nailed the Lewistown supercell of 4/4/23 the night before, while the HRRR showed nothing.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
WRF-NSSL is my hopium. The only one that really puts a solid, discrete cell through my target area. Although the RRFS and the WRF-ARW suggest hedging slightly north into Minnesota might not be a bad idea.

IIRC it was one or both of the WRF models that pretty well nailed the Lewistown supercell of 4/4/23 the night before, while the HRRR showed nothing.
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Whats your target area tomorrow if you don't mind me asking?
 
US_Highway15 said:
Whats your target area tomorrow if you don't mind me asking?
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Probably going to head to somewhere along US 65 to start - either Iowa Falls, Mason City or Albert Lea (will decide which in the morning) and work from there. Decide if I need to head further west or not.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Probably going to head to somewhere along US 65 to start - either Iowa Falls, Mason City or Albert Lea (will decide which in the morning) and work from there. Decide if I need to head further west or not.
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Yeah I plan on stopping in Davenport or Cedar Rapids to fill up and check HRRR and AFD's (coming from about an hour SE of South Bend IN), and decide where to go from there. I would honestly hit Minnesota if I didn't have a class at 8 AM eastern Tuesday morning. Gonna be riding on Red Bull all day tomorrow and tomorrow night (and copium if the chase is a fail) on the ride back.
 
If there's one thing I've learned the last two years on this site it's that the best meteorologists avoid an overreliance on models, and instead interpret the raw data within them to make their own predictions. Another trend I've noticed is if an outbreak is imminent, the HRRR won't start really printing until early AM Monday.
 
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snostorm21 said:
Needless to say tmrw will be a very high ceiling, low floor kinda day. Do not envy the SPC at this moment and will be interesting to see the D1 outlook. Would be pretty darn surprised if it goes high… We’ll see
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Usually when it's iffy they play it safe with a MDT.
 
Well…. If today taught you anything, it would be never ever let your guard down no matter the risk. That being said looking at tmr. There’s a chance we have the same outcome. Except having the outlier being these going through populated places. While yes this forecast is definitely tricky, it’s important to known the capability of this event. For yall chasing, be careful (which ik yall will).
 
MMWX said:
Usually when it's iffy they play it safe with a MDT.
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I think it’s gonna come down to how much forcing the winds have. Depending if they’re gonna be more straight or perpendicular. And how strong the cap will be. I think these are the two main questions they are looking at. It also doesn’t seem like ( based on the runs above) there is a whole lot of storm coverage (which I could be wrong).
 
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