April 20th 2025 severe threat

[UncleJuJu98]

Potential for a robust event appears possible Sunday afternoon/evening.

 

[Kds86z]

God spare Missouri, for the love of Pete..

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

God spare Missouri, for the love of Pete..

Over 600 m2s2 of SRH. That is pretty scary to say the least.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Is the SRH in the 0 to 1 km area? If that is the case MO may be in lots of trouble.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

SRH helicity, simulated radar and updraft swaths.

 

[Kds86z]

D2

 

[WesL]

Fun times here in NW Arkansas. Appears we had a small tornado touchdown in Tontitown and Springdale. Damage looks to be in lower areas. Mostly powerlines from the pics I've seen. We have another Severe Thunderstorm heading south of Fayetteville at the moment.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Surprised there's not a hatched tornado risk for this event tommorow. HRRR looks rather impressive with a broken line of supercells

 

[Kds86z]

Surprised there's not a hatched tornado risk for this event tommorow. HRRR looks rather impressive with a broken line of supercells

Day 2 was hesitant on some things..

 

[Kds86z]

Day 2 was hesitant on some things..

But given Missouri is a tornado magnet this year….

 

[andyhb]

Volatile 12z CAM suite for tomorrow, including the MPAS runs which are basically a tornado outbreak over MO.

Lots of semi discrete convection in extreme low level SRH and enough low level buoyancy to use it is a recipe for trouble.

 

[Muwx]

Volatile 12z CAM suite for tomorrow, including the MPAS runs which are basically a tornado outbreak over MO.

Lots of the semi discrete convection in extreme low level SRH and enough low level buoyancy to use it is a recipe for trouble.

How far west does it look to get started? Most of the action has avoided far western Missouri this year.

 

[andyhb]

How far west does it look to get started? Most of the action has avoided far western Missouri this year.

Far enough west that Kansas City and Springfield are of concern.

 

[Kds86z]

Anxiously awaiting new D2..

 

[Muwx]

Far enough west that Kansas City and Springfield are of concern.

Thanks, Andy. Always look forward to your thoughts on these things, especially when I’m in the risk zone.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[andyhb]

Kind of wondering why there isn't a hatched tornado risk for tomorrow. Tornadoes are likely going to be significant if they occur given the magnitude of the low level shear.

 

[Muwx]

Kind of wondering why there isn't a hatched tornado risk for tomorrow. Tornadoes are likely going to be significant if they occur given the magnitude of the low level shear.

Convection won’t be isolated enough for strong tornadoes per SGF.

 

[andyhb]

Convection won’t be isolated enough for strong tornadoes per SGF.

I think that's nonsense, low level shear is strong enough for significant tornadoes with either supercellular or QLCS modes.

 

[andyhb]

Not only that, but basically all of the CAMs are hinting at a broken line of semi discrete storms, not an MCS.