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Archive March 18-20th, 2018 Severe Weather

Fred Gossage said:
Wow, then we're definitely at the point... given the coverage on the map... where this is only lacking one more EF3 or higher to verify a High Risk.
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4/27/11 has clouded our judgement somewhat on what we consider a bad day, but 3/19/18 was a pretty big deal.
 
Central AL was a cap break away from a major tornado outbreak. Like Kory mentioned, greater lift over the area would have been useful.

Keep in mind that the surface winds were backing and the LLJ increasing with time.

2018031921.72230.skewt.parc.gif
 
I don't know what that sounding above uses to calculate the lifted parcel, but the parameters on the right are horrendously off. Here's a better view of the 21Z BMX sounding from the SPC website, created through N-SHARP (what SHARPPY was essentially created from). Still, it changes nothing about your assessment of the situation...

last.gif


0-1 km SRH increased to 565 m2/s2 by the time of the 02Z sounding. Shear profiles were definitely on a rapid increase across the warm sector the closer we got to sunset and after.
 
Fred Gossage said:
I don't know what that sounding above uses to calculate the lifted parcel, but the parameters on the right are horrendously off. Here's a better view of the 21Z BMX sounding from the SPC website, created through N-SHARP (what SHARPPY was essentially created from). Still, it changes nothing about your assessment of the situation...


0-1 km SRH increased to 565 m2/s2 by the time of the 02Z sounding. Shear profiles were definitely on a rapid increase across the warm sector the closer we got to sunset and after.
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Yeah I don't know how they calculate the indices, but it's the only website that I know of to reliably get special soundings since it allows you to search by range.
 
Just looking at radar loops of the cluster today, now that BMX has their event page up. The propagation and cell merger activity with that thing is fascinating. It's interesting to me, too, how the storms kept impressive reflectivity signatures of classic hooks despite being embedded within that mass. Such a volatile, destructive cluster. It's also very interesting to watch the hail peak over Cullman as the isolated Winston storm ahead of the cluster merged into it. That cell that merged was tornado warned as it went over Cullman but I don't think a tornado was ever confirmed from it until it was absorbed, but wow what a bad place for a merger and sudden hail intensification.

I shudder to think how much worse this would have been without the cap. Each of the little struggling showers we watched, indeed even the shower I watched try to grow right overhead, could have become an absolute historic monster.
 
JSU offering three options for students for the spring semester...

We had a productive conversation about potentially offering students three options: 1) use the current grade earned as the final grade for all classes or for select classes, 2) take an incomplete in all or select classes and finish the class(es) through the applicable incomplete procedure, 3) complete the semester for all or select classes and complete course requirements.
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I think that is a very fair outcome considering how much restoration is required at the campus.

Full post - http://www.jsu.edu/news/articles/2018/03/student-affairs-update-mar-24.html
 
jmills said:
Cal 2 sucked royally. Cal 3 is easier by a long shot.
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Oddly enough I made an A in Cal II, but barely squeaked out a B in Cal III.

I had heard all of the horror stories about Cal II, and spent a ton of time in the library for that one and got ahead of the curve. I slacked off for Cal III and it bit me.
 
A 6th tornado in the BMX CWA was confirmed yesterday for the March 19 event:

.TORNADO #6 Finks Lake Tornado
(Calhoun County)...

Rating: EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind: 65 mph
Path Length (Statute): 0.84 miles
Path Width (Maximum): 138 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: 03/19/2018
Start Time: 9:07 PM CDT
Start Location: 2 W Weaver / Calhoun / AL
Start Lat/Lon: 33.7502/-85.8464

End Date: 03/19/2018
End Time: 9:10 PM CDT
End Location: 2 WSW Weaver / Calhoun / AL
End Lat/Lon: 33.7418/-85.8364

Summary:
The tornado damage began in a wooded area just southwest of the
intersection of Alexandria Road and Saks Road where minor timber
damage was observed. Damage was largely confined to timber damage
until it entered a residential area just north of Finks Lake. The
tornado caused notable roof damage on the west and south sides of a
home near the north edge of the lake while a residence immediately to
the east suffered the loss of a few singles. A softwood tree was
uprooted to the west of the residence that suffered the most roof
damage as well. The tornado continued further southeast across Finks
Lake where a few softwood trees were uprooted on both the north and
south sides of the lake. A small boat dock on the southeast side of
the lake suffered peel back of a portion of its roof, and a camper
was flipped over just off of Cane Creek Road. The camper did not
appear to have an awning or canopy extended and other than having
stabilizers deployed had no anchoring. The tornado continued
southeast across Cane Creek Road where a softwood tree was uprooted
and a horse trailer was blown onto its side in an open field further
southeast. The end point was determined to be in this field as no
other damage was evident beyond this point.
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Source: Public Information Statement (PNS) from NWS Birmingham.
 
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