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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

US_Highway15 said:
Once again, I will not tolerate any future Broyles slander. Dude clearly knows what he's doing, contrary to historical popular belief.
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What gets me. As soon that high risk was put out by SPC . Lord the bashing begun. They know what they doing. Hell no one is perfect. . The atmosphere was freaking loaded like dynamite
 
wx_guy said:
Contrary to what most others here are saying, I think a HIGH risk today is absolutely warranted. If my model and some of the other guidance is correct, a significant and life-threatening event will unfold today. I'm currently running a 1 km ultra high res model centered on Memphis that started last night before I went to bed, so I think that was a great call. It should be able to resolve some very fine details about the event. Hopefully I'll be able to post some details on that in the next few hours.


But yeah, I absolutely believe in this HIGH. It's going to over perform as a HIGH as well, I believe. I would not be surprised at all today to see multiple EF4's.
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I'm not entirely trying to take a victory lap here, but this was almost 100 pages ago...lol *shakes Magic 8 Ball vigorously*
 
ColdFront said:
Wow. When I saw 20 extra pages from when I went to bed to this morning I knew the outbreak must have continued.

I need to eat a big plate of crow because honestly I was pretty vocal in asking what in the hell the SPC and Broyles was seeing exactly to upgrade yesterday to a high risk. Well, that’s why Broyles and the SPC are the best in the world and I’m just some hobbyist on the internet with an opinion that was very wrong on yesterday.

It seems like so many of the town names we’ve heard over the years got mentioned last night. Holly Springs, Selmer, all of Arkansas. Just an absolute historic outbreak
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I completely agree - I gotta eat crow too. I was very, very skeptical, but Broyles and other SPC forecasters must have seen something that indicated a more substantial threat than what most of the CAMs were showing. It ended up being a phenomenal forecast and I’ll never doubt them again… but I will say it’s hard not to when even Trey himself was super iffy on the high risk issuance too
 
slenker said:
I completely agree - I gotta eat crow too. I was very, very skeptical, but Broyles and other SPC forecasters must have seen something that indicated a more substantial threat than what most of the CAMs were showing. It ended up being a phenomenal forecast and I’ll never doubt them again… but I will say it’s hard not to when even Trey himself was super iffy on the high risk issuance too
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"Hey guys, Trey here"

9xkZCQ.gif
 
slenker said:
I completely agree - I gotta eat crow too. I was very, very skeptical, but Broyles and other SPC forecasters must have seen something that indicated a more substantial threat than what most of the CAMs were showing. It ended up being a phenomenal forecast and I’ll never doubt them again… but I will say it’s hard not to when even Trey himself was super iffy on the high risk issuance too
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Well Trey was sort wrong this time. No one is perfect
 
slenker said:
I completely agree - I gotta eat crow too. I was very, very skeptical, but Broyles and other SPC forecasters must have seen something that indicated a more substantial threat than what most of the CAMs were showing. It ended up being a phenomenal forecast and I’ll never doubt them again… but I will say it’s hard not to when even Trey himself was super iffy on the high risk issuance too
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Oh I’m sure several people in this board will doubt them again, probably as soon as Saturday. It’s in a weenie’s nature!
 
Wind Driven Coconut said:
Oh I’m sure several people in this board will doubt them again, probably as soon as Saturday. It’s in a weenie’s nature!
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It’s not necessarily “weenie” to me to disagree with an official forecast, but when the people on Twitter began personal attacks against SPC forecasters over stuff like this, I find it extraordinarily dumb.

And yes, Trey is absolutely not perfect - he was wrong about the May 6 2024 event iirc, he was extremely bullish on a violent tornado threat with that system. But he’s still a seasoned chaser and he is extremely well-versed in what kind of setups produce violent tornadoes, so I trust his word over a lot of people.
 
lake.effect said:
Looking at first videos from Selmer, and wow. Extreme contextual damage, easy EF4 and definite EF5 candidate. Slabbed homes, debarked / denuded trees, ground scouring, granulated debris all appear evident.
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The slabbed apartment office was built within the last couple years. I'm looking forward to seeing that survey. Of course, there are trees standing somewhat nearby, so, you know..
 
lake.effect said:
Looking at first videos from Selmer, and wow. Extreme contextual damage, easy EF4 and definite EF5 candidate. Slabbed homes, debarked / denuded trees, ground scouring, granulated debris all appear evident.
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I saw some really impressive contextuals, such as a bit of granulation and scouring, but the home damage I’ve seen screams EF2-EF3 intensity. I’m yet to see imagery of any slabbed homes because I didn’t see any in the videos I’ve seen. There seemed to be a CMU home that was partially swept away but I’m sure that would be given a 165 mph EF3 rating since it didn’t seem very well-constructed.

Also, where’s the slabbed apartment complex? Very interested to see that
 
slenker said:
It’s not necessarily “weenie” to me to disagree with an official forecast, but when the people on Twitter began personal attacks against SPC forecasters over stuff like this, I find it extraordinarily dumb.

And yes, Trey is absolutely not perfect - he was wrong about the May 6 2024 event iirc, he was extremely bullish on a violent tornado threat with that system. But he’s still a seasoned chaser and he is extremely well-versed in what kind of setups produce violent tornadoes, so I trust his word over a lot of people.
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100% agree with this and appreciated Trey’s reasoning as well. Good debate, backed up by sound reasoning is why I’m here, a great way to learn.
 
slenker said:
I saw some really impressive contextuals, such as a bit of granulation and scouring, but the home damage I’ve seen screams EF2-EF3 intensity. I’m yet to see imagery of any slabbed homes because I didn’t see any in the videos I’ve seen. There seemed to be a CMU home that was partially swept away but I’m sure that would be given a 165 mph EF3 rating since it didn’t seem very well-constructed.

Also, where’s the slabbed apartment complex? Very interested to see that
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jiharris0220 said:
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