Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[ColdFront]

View attachment 38421
That's less than ideal

Those cells are way too close to the line to be long trackers. Within the next two hours they are absorbed.

They can produce significant tornados yes, but not for a long duration.

 

[Maxis_s]

45% wind risk added for areas in the northern part of the high risk up into central Indiana.

 

[Kds86z]

Day 1 is out, let’s all go read!

 

[Parker Copeland]

45# added for Damaging Winds

 

[Maxis_s]

Those cells are way too close to the line to be long trackers. Within the next two hours they are absorbed.

They can produce significant tornados yes, but not for a long duration.

Those cells fire and start producing UH tracks about 2 hours before that snapshot and go on for another hour or two after that.

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

The low clouds are just absolutely racing put of here right now.

View attachment 38422
45% wind risk added for areas in the northern part of the high risk up into central Indiana.

Oh, wind. You just about gave me a heart attack.

 

[KCweatherboy]

I'm just getting caught up on the thread but I think the high risk is warrented. Imo the 12z sounding out of LZK looks like the perfect outbreak sounding as the day continues to evolve. The CAM models are also overdoing convection to me and there's more room for discrete cellular activity than they're showing. I also feel like the discrete supercellular tornadoes this morning could be a sign of things to come as a few others mentioned already.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

See SPC brought the boss in. Thompson

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

I think they could've gone high with this update, but pulling the trigger on it overnight was...bullish, to say the least.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Northwest extent of risk areas trimmed/downgraded quite a bit despite clearing pushing in.

Nothing is making much sense to me about today.

 

[ColdFront]

Those cells fire and start producing UH tracks about 2 hours before that snapshot and go on for another hour or two after that.

As part of the line they continue for another hour or two. I’ve looked at the helicity tracks numerous times this morning. Those two lone western KY streaks get absorbed quickly while the north Mississippi swath seems to be the best chance for a long lived significant tornado producer

 

[Muwx]

I am surprised that the discussion doesn't explicitly address the risk of violent tornadoes. The SPC is on the record saying they only want to use high risks when they expect violent tornadoes, but that outlook does not mention them. I understand it says EF 3+ but that is not explicitly talking about violent tornadoes. The 3/15 outlook mentioned violent tornadoes multiple times. Very odd to me.

 

[lake.effect]

Northwest extent of risk areas trimmed/downgraded quite a bit despite clearing pushing in.

Nothing is making much sense to me about today.

Are you looking at the right outlook? I'm seeing a big expansion in the MOD all way up to central IN/western OH

 

[Parker Copeland]

we in a lull rn. keep an eye out for later

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Are you looking at the right outlook? I'm seeing a big expansion in the MOD all way up to central IN/western OH

I'm referring mainly to IL/WI. For example Chicago was in the enhanced risk before, now marginal.

 

[lake.effect]

I am surprised that the discussion doesn't explicitly address the risk of violent tornadoes. The SPC is on the record saying they only want to use high risks when they expect violent tornadoes, but that outlook does not mention them. I understand it says EF 3+ but that is not explicitly talking about violent tornadoes. The 3/15 outlook mentioned violent tornadoes multiple times. Very odd to me.

IMO I wouldn't read that much into. Discussions are somewhat subjective and there's no required language to use for specific risk levels. High risk for tornadoes implies violent tornadoes are possible.

 

[ColdFront]

Northwest extent of risk areas trimmed/downgraded quite a bit despite clearing pushing in.

Nothing is making much sense to me about today.

It’s insanity lol

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

I don't know of It's just me, but something's just felt intangibly bizarre about today's threat since last Saturday.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Holy smokes that's a big area

 

[lake.effect]

I'm referring mainly to IL/WI. For example Chicago was in the enhanced risk before, now marginal.

Ah gotcha. Yeah, that's weird. IL/WI seems to have been trending upwards all day. I certainly get the expansion of the MOD, but trimming IL/WI is a real head scratcher.