• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

buckeye05 said:
I don’t know if I’ve ever heard NWS Little Rock sound as concerned as they are now with their current forecast discussion. Saying violent long-tracked tornadoes are likely too. Yikes.
Click to expand...
Idk if it’s just me, but LZK has for the last couple of years has not only been really good with their ratings, but also good with their forecast discussion.
 
buckeye05 said:
I don’t know if I’ve ever heard NWS Little Rock sound as concerned as they are now with their current forecast discussion. Saying violent long-tracked tornadoes are likely too. Yikes.
Click to expand...
Just read it, it's a doozy. Going to post it on here. Check the last paragraph too. That's about the strongest wording you'll see

note of change to the overall seriousness of this forecast
discussion is the upgrade of the SPC Day 1 Outlook (Storm Prediction
Center) category to a High Risk (level 5 out of 5) across portions
of east-central and northeastern Arkansas. However, do not become
complacent despite which category occupies your location. Today has
the making of a serious, severe weather outbreak across the entire
state.

For today, all hazards continue to be in play across the entire
state. The risk of very large hail in excess of baseball size or
possibly larger is a real possibility for the entire state of
Arkansas, damaging wind gusts of 60 mph to 80+ mph will be
possible across the central and eastern parts of Arkansas, and
tornadoes (some of which will likely be long-track and violent)
will be possible across the southeastern half of Arkansas;
however, the highest threat for long-track, violent tornadoes will
be across parts of northeastern Arkansas and east-central
Arkansas in the same placement as the overall High Risk outlook
for severe weather.

In the upper lvls, a H500 closed low is moving over of the Central
Plains region of the CONUS sweeping over the Mid-West region of the
CONUS into the day. At the sfc, the aforementioned warm sector is
already beginning to take place setting the table for a severe
weather outbreak across the state in the form of the lifting warm
front and cold front that is on approach to the Natural State via
Oklahoma.

The parameter space at the sfc will be more than supportive of all
modes of severe weather. Latest short-term high resolution guidance
soundings forecast an environment by early Wednesday afternoon that
is progged to be in place with model agreement of SBCAPE between
1,800 J/kg and 3,000+ J/kg (in various locations statewide) and ESRH
(Effective Storm Relative Helicity) between the values of 200
m^2/s^2 and 400+ m^2/s^2 (in various locations statewide). In
addition, hodographs show large sickle-shaped between 0 and 3km
which is evident of super-cellular storm mode which is associated
with all hazards from large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
tornadoes.

Expect numerous strong to severe thunderstorms across Arkansas
during this afternoon through this evening with the greatest
frequency of strong to severe thunderstorms across the eastern two-
thirds of the state including the Little Rock metro area. All modes
of severe weather will be likely throughout the duration of the day
into late this evening with the overall severe threat transitioning
from west to east throughout the day as the cold front begins to
enter the state at the Arkansas/Oklahoma border early this
afternoon.

Today has the necessary ingredients in place to be a
memorable day severe weather outbreak wise which is quite the
declarative statement given the history of severe weather in
Arkansas. It is an absolute must that you remain vigilant today to
quickly changing weather conditions and have a severe weather action
plan in place and the means to activate that plan in a matter of
minutes to protect life.
 
Having mostly grown up in Memphis, when I see a severe weather risk like this posted, I always wonder when the "shield" around the city against violent tornadoes will break. As a kid, I recall people claiming the city is protected by Crowley's Ridge in Arkansas and the bluffs along the Mississippi River (completely absurd, of course!). It's fascinating how some major metros like OKC and Birmingham get pummeled repeatedly; whereas, others in seemingly risky locations have never seen an EF4+ tornado.
 
Not a huge deal in the scheme of things, but part of this outbreak is going to unfold across areas with some of the worst WFOs when it comes to half-baked damage surveys and questionable ratings (Memphis, Louisville, and Nashville). Could be some controversy after this one, just sayin’…

Little Rock does a great job these days though, and Paducah is pretty good in my opinion, so at least there’s that. Jackson is usually excellent with their surveys, but they won’t be in the middle of the action. Lincoln, Indianapolis, and Wilmington are decent, but aren’t likely to see the main event either.
 
Last edited:
buckeye05 said:
Not a huge deal in the scheme of things, but part of this outbreak is going to unfold across areas with some of the worst WFOs when it comes to half-baked damage surveys and questionable ratings (Memphis, Louisville, and Nashville). Could be some controversy after this one, just sayin’…

Little Rock does a great job these days though, and Paducah is pretty good in my opinion, so at least there’s that. Jackson is usually excellent with their surveys, but they won’t be in the middle of the action. Lincoln, Indianapolis, and Wilmington are decent, but aren’t likely to see the main event either.
Click to expand...
I think Paducah is generally one of the better WFOs out there. I think people give them generally too much of a hard time with the Mayfield survey when genuinely they did a pretty good job with it.
 
buckeye05 said:
Not a huge deal in the scheme of things, but part of this outbreak is going to unfold across areas with some of the worst WFOs when it comes to half-baked damage surveys and questionable ratings (Memphis, Louisville, and Nashville). Could be some controversy after this one, just sayin’…

Little Rock does a great job these days though, and Paducah is pretty good in my opinion, so at least there’s that. Jackson is usually excellent with their surveys, but they won’t be in the middle of the action. Lincoln, Indianapolis, and Wilmington are decent, but aren’t likely to see the main event either.
Click to expand...
Wait, I thought Nashville was a good WFO? Didn’t they survey Cookeville?
 
AJS said:
I think Paducah is generally one of the better WFOs out there. I think people give them generally too much of a hard time with the Mayfield survey when genuinely they did a pretty good job with it.
Click to expand...
I absolutely agree.

AJS said:
Wait, I thought Nashville was a good WFO? Didn’t they survey Cookeville?
Click to expand...
I don’t want to derail the thread too much, but that’s really their only recent success story, and just barely so. Through the grapevine, I heard part of the survey team actually wanted to go with high-end EF3 in Cookeville. They described it as a “tough call” when it really wasn’t. Generally they are very conservative with their ratings.
 
buckeye05 said:
I absolutely agree.


I don’t want to derail the thread too much, but that’s really their only recent success story, and just barely so. Through the grapevine, I heard part of the survey team actually wanted to go with high-end EF3 in Cookeville. They described it as a “tough call” when it really wasn’t. Generally they are very conservative with their ratings.
Click to expand...
Ahhh gotcha. Yeah, honestly expecting some controversy with some of these WFOs. We shall see.
 
Oh my!
I’m off work AND there’s a high risk I’m not included in! I get to stare at someone else’s radar and watch woooo
There are a lot of failure modes but it still looks pretty dicey if those don’t pan out. Fingers crossed everything stays away from people though
 
MoonBaby said:
Oh my!
I’m off work AND there’s a high risk I’m not included in! I get to stare at someone else’s radar and watch woooo
There are a lot of failure modes but it still looks pretty dicey if those don’t pan out. Fingers crossed everything stays away from people though
Click to expand...
Yeah I’m right in it …
Going take off early go chasing today
 
Waking up and coming here to check the new D1

whatisgoingon-ohgod.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top