OHWX97
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- 1,254
- Location
- Maineville, Ohio
Another potent updraft has fired southwest of the Red River/Wichita Falls cell.
It’s taking a pretty concerning path too. If it keeps up in the direction it’s going, it could wind up in Tulsa in the next couple of hours.Wichita Falls cell might become our greatest concern in the short term if it can strengthen faster than the other cells up north, and I honestly don't see why it couldn't.
Yeah, this may be a big one if it can really organize itself in the next hour or so.It’s taking a pretty concerning path too. If it keeps up in the direction it’s going, it could wind up in Tulsa in the next couple of hours.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CDT TUE APR 01 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 91...
VALID 012334Z - 020100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 91 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT.
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F). THE VNX VWP DEPICTS A LONG HODOGRAPH
(AROUND 80 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR) WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL CLOCKWISE
CURVATURE/STREAMWISE VORTICITY. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED/DISCRETE
(POTENTIALLY SPLITTING) SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS INITIALLY, GIVEN FAIRLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT. WITH TIME, A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
YIELD VERY LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS (EFFECTIVE
SRH UPWARDS OF 600 M2/S2) -- HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF A TRANSITION TO
DOMINANT RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT MODEST, THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND PROFILE AND
DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE MODE WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
TORNADO POTENTIAL, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG.
..WEINMAN.. 04/01/2025
yeah, looks like inflow is really starting to crankCopic just said that the storm on Tonkawa is stalled and about to make a right turn producing tornadogenesis.
Not really. Looks to have split to me. Storms are an unorganized mess at the momentWichita Falls storm seems to have merged with the other cell.