Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[wx_guy]

A look into Wednesday - Friday real quick:

Wednesday afternoon looks to start with a considerable hail threat, if this model depiction resolves correctly.





Then, at 22z, it shows an incredible environment with STP off the charts, literally. This uses the SPC formula for STP (fixed layer), and I've checked it on many cases, so I have no reason to believe it's wrong, but that's an absolutely insane STP.




At 0z tomorrow night. Notice "all threats" are on the table at this point, with Wind, Hail, and Tornadoes high threats on the board.





And at 02z. If this is any indication, tomorrow will be a significant outbreak.





Then to Thursday night:








At 2z Thursday night:





And Friday night:




We see that in addition to the Tornado threat, the Flood threat is increasing:




Here, on Friday night, some places are getting 4-6 inches of rain in a 3-hour span. Rough.





Upshot? Even though tonight might (or might not) be impactful, there are a few serious days ahead of us with respect to the weather.

 

[Kds86z]

A look into Wednesday - Friday real quick:

Wednesday afternoon looks to start with a considerable hail threat, if this model depiction resolves correctly.


View attachment 38266


Then, at 22z, it shows an incredible environment with STP off the charts, literally. This uses the SPC formula for STP (fixed layer), and I've checked it on many cases, so I have no reason to believe it's wrong, but that's an absolutely insane STP.

View attachment 38267


At 0z tomorrow night. Notice "all threats" are on the table at this point, with Wind, Hail, and Tornadoes high threats on the board.


View attachment 38269


And at 02z. If this is any indication, tomorrow will be a significant outbreak.


View attachment 38271


Then to Thursday night:

View attachment 38272



View attachment 38273


At 2z Thursday night:

View attachment 38274



And Friday night:

View attachment 38275


We see that in addition to the Tornado threat, the Flood threat is increasing:

View attachment 38276


Here, on Friday night, some places are getting 4-6 inches of rain in a 3-hour span. Rough.

View attachment 38277



Upshot? Even though tonight might (or might not) be impactful, there are a few serious days ahead of us with respect to the weather.

Thank ya @wx_guy

 

[US_Highway15]

Storm by Goltry is strengthening as well FWIW. Keeping my eyes on Wichita Falls though.

 

[Tennie]

It looks like the cell around Hunter, Oklahoma, is trying to split.

 

[AJS]

Wichita Falls storm definitely bears watching.

 

[Chris3024]

Wichita Falls cells look to be starting to merge. Also, tops up to 45k.

 

[ColdFront]

Those Wichita Fall cells may combine and produce an absolute monster.

 

[TornadoFan]

Wichita Falls storm already has echo tops up to 44,000 feet.

 

[AJS]

Yeah, that Wichita Falls storm is one to watch.

 

[US_Highway15]

Holy lol New STW for baseball size hail, including Ponca City.

 

[TornadoFan]

Baseballs on the storm near Hunter, OK. PDS SVR issued.

 

[AJS]

@jiharris0220 please be safe!

 

[Tennie]

It looks like the cell around Hunter, Oklahoma, is trying to split.

And now that cell has been upgraded to a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Warning, with baseball-size hail and 60-MPH winds indicated.

 

[Brice W]

The way the Wichita Falls storms are, they are on the trajectory directly towards OKC metro.

 

[AJS]

Probably merging as we speak.

 

[US_Highway15]

Got some new showers starting to pop up on KTLX west of OKC.

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 38279
Probably merging as we speak.

Guess this would be a constructive merger . Shall see..

 

[Chris3024]

Gone severe on the Wichita Falls cell

 

[Kds86z]

Gone severe on the Wichita Falls cell

Yep she is.. you’re fast, beat me

 

[AJS]

Half dollar size hail for the Wichita Falls storm.