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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

Flood Watches are now up all across the Ohio Valley, Mississippi River Valley and Tennessee Valley, in anticipation of a major flooding threat. 10+ inches of rain expected in some places.
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
225 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>064-066-
067-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-011200-
/O.NEW.KLZK.FA.A.0003.250403T0600Z-250406T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot
Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Boone County Except Southwest-Newton County Higher
Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-Southern Johnson County-
Southern Pope County-Southeast Van Buren County-Western and
Northern Logan County-Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-Central and Eastern Montgomery
County-Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower
Elevations-Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-Johnson
County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-Van Buren
County Higher Elevations-Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-Northern Montgomery County
Higher Elevations-Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County
Higher Elevations-Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Including the cities of Camden, Atkins, Cherokee Village,
Booneville, Jasper, Bull Shoals, Knoxville, Hatfield, Calico
Rock, Pine Bluff, De Witt, Mountain View, Des Arc, Shirley,
Cabot, Bryant, Horseshoe Bend, Grannis, Cotton Plant, Summit,
Fairfield Bay, Gould, Havana, Marshall, Waveland, Batesville,
Thornton, Lonoke, Perryville, Star City, Pocahontas, Newport,
Arbaugh, Acorn, Rison, Western Grove, Deer, Y City, Saint Joe,
Hartman, Ozone, Mountain Fork, Boles, Arkadelphia, Kingsland,
Glenwood, Oark, Nunley, Clarendon, Conway, Blue Mountain, Hector,
Paris, Caulksville, Walnut Ridge, Cave City, Sheridan, Harrison,
Morrilton, Yellville, Stuttgart, Mountain Home, Clinton, Nogo,
Mount Magazine, Little Rock, Russellville, McCrory, Hot Springs,
Norman, Brinkley, Pelsor, Searcy, Clarksville, Fordyce, Tilly,
Ash Flat, Leslie, Hardy, Oxford, Benton, Damascus, Melbourne,
Scotland, Attica, Mount Ida, Hampton, Big Fork, Albert, Coal
Hill, Waldron, Ponca, Heber Springs, Botkinburg, Mammoth Spring,
London, Flippin, De Valls Bluff, Mansfield, Malvern, Plainview,
Hoxie, Danville, Augusta, Gilbert, Murfreesboro, Dardanelle, Rich
Mountain, Story, Ola, Pindall, Hartley, North Little Rock,
Subiaco, Mena, Sugar Grove, Dennard, Beebe, Hazen, and Boxley
225 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, eastern, north central, southeast,
southwest, and western Arkansas, including the following areas, in
central Arkansas, Conway, Faulkner, Garland, Grant, Lonoke,
Northwest Yell County, Perry, Pope County Higher Elevations,
Prairie, Pulaski, Saline, Southern Pope County, White and Yell
Excluding Northwest. In eastern Arkansas, Jackson, Lawrence,
Monroe, Randolph and Woodruff. In north central Arkansas, Baxter,
Boone County Except Southwest, Boone County Higher Elevations,
Cleburne, Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher
Elevations, Fulton, Independence, Izard, Marion, Newton County
Higher Elevations, Newton County Lower Elevations, Northwest
Searcy County Higher Elevations, Searcy County Lower Elevations,
Sharp, Southeast Van Buren County, Stone and Van Buren County
Higher Elevations. In southeast Arkansas, Arkansas, Cleveland,
Jefferson and Lincoln. In southwest Arkansas, Calhoun, Clark,
Dallas, Hot Spring, Ouachita and Pike. In western Arkansas,
Central and Eastern Montgomery County, Central and Southern Scott
County, Johnson County Higher Elevations, Northern Montgomery
County Higher Elevations, Northern Polk County Higher Elevations,
Northern Scott County, Polk County Lower Elevations, Southeast
Polk County Higher Elevations, Southern Johnson County, Southern
and Eastern Logan County, Southwest Montgomery County Higher
Elevations and Western and Northern Logan County.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are
possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Recent dry conditions could rapidly give way to widespread
flooding across much of the state as heavy rain is expected
from Wednesday night through Sunday morning. Significant
rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches with locally higher amounts
are expected. Some of the highest totals are expected along
the I-30/I-57 corridor or generally from Arkadelphia to
Little Rock to Newport.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

67
Click to expand...
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Memphis TN
230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

.Generational rainfall amounts will fall across the Mid-South
Wednesday to Saturday, resulting in significant river, areal, and
flash flooding. Areas along and north of I-40 will receive upwards
of 10 inches of rain.

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-020>024-
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-011030-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FA.A.0004.250402T1800Z-250406T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden-St.
Francis-Lee AR-Phillips-Dunklin-Pemiscot-DeSoto-Marshall-Benton
MS-Tippah-Alcorn-Tishomingo-Tunica-Tate-Prentiss-Coahoma-Quitman-
Panola-Lafayette-Union-Pontotoc-Lee MS-Itawamba-Tallahatchie-
Yalobusha-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Monroe-Lake-Obion-Weakley-Henry-Dyer-
Gibson-Carroll-Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood-Crockett-
Madison-Chester-Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-Hardeman-McNairy-
Hardin-
Including the cities of Parsons, Martin, Brownsville, Somerville,
Milan, Okolona, Olive Branch, Savannah, Marianna, Houston, Alamo,
Holly Springs, Ashland, Helena-West Helena, Iuka, Ripley TN,
Jonesboro, Kennett, Pontotoc, Blytheville, Batesville, Bartlett,
Southaven, Corning, Paris, Aberdeen, New Albany, Marks,
Caruthersville, Lexington, Piggott, Paragould, Covington,
Dyersburg, Dresden, Collierville, Camden, Forrest City, Bruce,
Fulton, Selmer, Amory, Jackson, Clarksdale, Tunica, Charleston,
Booneville, Memphis, Harrisburg, Water Valley, Coffeeville,
Corinth, Union City, Wynne, Tupelo, Oxford, Ripley MS,
Millington, Tiptonville, West Memphis, Senatobia, Huntingdon,
Germantown, Calhoun City, Henderson, Oakland, Bolivar, Humboldt,
and Decaturville
230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, including the following areas,
Clay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Lee AR, Mississippi,
Phillips, Poinsett and St. Francis, North Mississippi, including
the following areas, Alcorn, Benton MS, Calhoun, Chickasaw,
Coahoma, DeSoto, Itawamba, Lafayette, Lee MS, Marshall, Monroe,
Panola, Pontotoc, Prentiss, Quitman, Tallahatchie, Tate, Tippah,
Tishomingo, Tunica, Union and Yalobusha, Southeast Missouri,
including the following areas, Dunklin and Pemiscot, and West
Tennessee, including the following areas, Benton TN, Carroll,
Chester, Crockett, Decatur, Dyer, Fayette, Gibson, Hardeman,
Hardin, Haywood, Henderson, Henry, Lake, Lauderdale, Madison,
McNairy, Obion, Shelby, Tipton and Weakley.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Extensive street
flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Multiple rounds of locally heavy rainfall over several days
will result in rapid rises on creeks, streams, and rivers.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Schlessiger
Click to expand...
1743481747906.png
 
wx_guy said:
For those of you that are awake waiting on the upgrade, I have WRF-ARW model data to look at, specifically for tomorrow in Kansas and Oklahoma! Coming in a few.
Thank You So Much GIF by euphoria
Click to expand...

@wx_guy
 
Sorry for those that were waiting, but I think I discovered something in my code that needs fixing. I don't want to show potentially wrong metrics, so I'll hold off on showing the data. But basically it shows sporadic supercells tomorrow in Oklahoma in Kansas, some of which could be strong.
 
US_Highway15 said:
Wow. They stayed Enhanced:


View attachment 38103
View attachment 38104
Click to expand...
"SYNOPSIS

A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND POWERFUL 100+ KT JET STREAK WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS
WEDNESDAY. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL
RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN IA, MO, IL AND IN. 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPEAR
LIKELY TO REACH SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THE DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE WILL SWEEP EASTWARD, WITH
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT DAYBREAK.

..UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES

THE PRESENCE OF EARLY MORNING STORMS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION SUBSTANTIALLY COMPLICATES THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES,
BUT SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE STORMS MAY RE-INTENSIFY WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE POSING A SIGNIFICANT WIND/TORNADO RISK, GIVEN THE VERY
STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR PRESENT. OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY COULD OUTRUN THE BETTER BUOYANCY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT,
POTENTIALLY LIMITING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RETURN MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION. REGARDLESS, VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT
AND LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES IF SURFACE-BASED STORMS CAN BE SUSTAINED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHER
SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES MAY
BE NEEDED IN FUTURES OUTLOOKS, AS CONFIDENCE IN THE WARM FRONTAL
POSITION AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ARE FURTHER RESOLVED.

..OZARKS AND THE MID MS VALLEY

FARTHER SOUTH, MULTIPLE EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS
OF THE MIDWEST AND MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS AS THE TROUGH AND JET
SHIFT EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE DISPLACED SOUTH
OF THE PRIMARY ASCENT, MODERATE HEIGHT FALLS WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF A VERY BROAD WARM SECTOR. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
ONGOING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND WESTERN AR/MO EARLY. RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THIS CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BEGINS TO WARM
AND DESTABILIZE. ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS, THOUGH WITH SOMEWHAT VEERED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW, SUGGEST A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES IS
LIKELY. SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A MIXED MODE AND
NUMEROUS STORM INTERACTIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ALONG A PER-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
AXIS, OR WITHIN THE BROADER WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE WESTERN MID MS
VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG, BUT SOMEWHAT
MERIDONAL SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A MIXED MODE OF SUPERCELLS AND
CLUSTERS AS STORMS DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE PARAMETER SPACE
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER (STP 3+). HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN
LARGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH ESRH
OF 300-400 M2/S2. THIS SUGGESTS ANY LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL
POSE A RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES, IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

..RED RIVER AND THE ARKLATEX

ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT, SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS MAY SUPPORT ONLY ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. STILL A
COUPLE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEAST TX, SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW,
ROBUST MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F), AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ALL HAZARDS. THESE STORMS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO PARTS OF THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED SEVERE RISK.

LATER IN THE EVENING, A SECONDARY LOW-LEVEL JET SURGE WILL BEGIN
ACROSS NORTH TX AND THE RED RIVER VICINITY. WARM ADVECTION STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AS THE STALLING COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
LIFT BACK NORTH INTO OK/TX AS A WARM FRONT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS/CLUSTERS WITH AN ATTENDED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS OVERNIGHT.

..LYONS.. 04/01/2025"
 
wx_guy said:
Sorry for those that were waiting, but I think I discovered something in my code that needs fixing. I don't want to show potentially wrong metrics, so I'll hold off on showing the data. But basically it shows sporadic supercells tomorrow in Oklahoma in Kansas, some of which could be strong.
Click to expand...
Thanks @wx_guy off to bed. Will view tomorrow.
 
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