Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[wx_guy]

Soundings pulled from Oklahoma City in the latest HRRR run. Absolutely crazy numbers. P.S. Finding fully non-contaminated soundings from the HRRR is about as enjoyable as hearing nails on a chalkboard.
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Here's the rest of the map from Pivotal:
EHI 0-1km values. Very dangerous numbers.

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STP numbers from Pivotal:
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00z HRRR has storms initiating in Oklahoma during the early morning hours. I find this very hard to believe.

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This is quite possibly the highest I've ever seen the STP's on Pivotal Weather. Usually they are quite based.

 

[slenker]

That one cell is uncomfortably close to Columbus

As much as I would like to see a tornado at some point in my life in-person, I don't think a strong to violent one would be what I want to see. More like an EF1 needle at worst. Hoping the HRRR backs off.

 

[hurricaneguy]

What’s the timeframe looking like for the most tornadic potential in central IL on Wed?

 

[US_Highway15]

Here's the full composite run for tomorrow and Wednesday till the late evening:



Here's the Updraft Helicty Swaths. The HRRR does recognize some of those storms as rotating updrafts:

 

[tornado examiner]

Add a new early run’s model bias to the list. Unrealistic pre frontals on the HRRR. Apparently.

 

[cg9450]

hrrr does that, cams might not show convection for tmr until tmr afternoon, and the event is like purely nocturnal

Would this be because of the LLJ?

 

[tornado examiner]

Is it just me or does the HRRR seem, unrealistic for Wednesday based on sheer vectors that wish to promote more linear stuff across the entire risk area?

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Is it just me or does the HRRR seem, unrealistic for Wednesday based on sheer vectors that wish to promote more linear stuff across the entire risk area?

doesn't 00z use like mesoscale stuff? so wouldn't that mean it sees the subtle forcing?

 

[US_Highway15]

Is it just me or does the HRRR seem, unrealistic for Wednesday based on sheer vectors that wish to promote more linear stuff across the entire risk area?

I wouldn't totally count it out. It is an early pull after all. We'll get more clear answers tomorrow anyways, so I would take this run with a grain of salt.

 

[tornado examiner]

doesn't 00z use like mesoscale stuff? so wouldn't that mean it sees the subtle forcing?

Idk I’m not the most knowledgeable about these topics.

 

[US_Highway15]

New 00z NAM just rolled.

Here's some soundings pulled from El Reno OK for tomorrow night. Violent looking hodographs.

 

[Sky_I565]

I don't know If I've ever seen CIPS output this high on Effective STP at 7?

 

[Kds86z]

New 00z NAM just rolled.

Here's some soundings pulled from El Reno OK for tomorrow night. Violent looking hodographs.
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….

 

[AJS]

New 00z NAM just rolled.

Here's some soundings pulled from El Reno OK for tomorrow night. Violent looking hodographs.
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Really extreme shear present there.

 

[jiharris0220]

NAM is now on board for convective initiation. Of course, right over where I live. (Obviously not taking this seriously as of now).

 

[AJS]

NAM is now on board for convective initiation. Of course, right over where I live. (Obviously not taking this seriously as of now).
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Probably another stupid question, but what exactly is convection initiation?

 

[Kds86z]

Probably another stupid question, but what exactly is convection initiation?

Storms initiation, taking off @AJS

 

[AJS]

NAM is now on board for convective initiation. Of course, right over where I live. (Obviously not taking this seriously as of now).
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Also nice to know another dude from Wichita Falls! Such an underrated city to visit and live in.

 

[Kds86z]

Probably another stupid question, but what exactly is convection initiation?

@AJS

 

[TheSuckZone]

Probably another stupid question, but what exactly is convection initiation?