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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

I told Jacob Riley last night that it's gonna be basically the same areas next week as with tomorrow's threat. Both having potential to go Level 4 Moderate Risk. Next week could be different as in we'll have to highlight the heavy rain/flash flood risk (which could be significant) as well
 
Very clear that there will be no rest for the weary here. Also seems like it's possible the first system stalls on its southern side, making way for a series of ejecting troughs to bring their own severe threats, one after the other. Obvious danger there is the moisture won't be swept out of the South like it usually would with frontal passage, so it'll basically prime the whole area for these subsequent systems. Could be a very messy, active and dangerous start to April.
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OMG! Not only would you have a multi-day significant severe threat, but a dangerous/high end flash flood threat too if that pans out across Arkansas, Tennessee, MS, and into parts of Alabama/Kentucky
 
Clancy said:
Very clear that there will be no rest for the weary here. Also seems like it's possible the first system stalls on its southern side, making way for a series of ejecting troughs to bring their own severe threats, one after the other. Obvious danger there is the moisture won't be swept out of the South like it usually would with frontal passage, so it'll basically prime the whole area for these subsequent systems. Could be a very messy, active and dangerous start to April.
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Nice work. Looks like 3-4 rounds! Tennessee is 40 percent on the tornado probabilities. Flooding will be a major concern I would think here too!
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I commented on your BlueSky post a bit ago, GFS has bounced around quite a bit from run to run. Guessing Euro along with ensembles have been more consistent?
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GFS has finally come around to the scenario that most of the rest of guidance is in agreement with, and the results are... that.
 
You know, at this point, I'm really considering putting a big billboard with flashing lights saying ALL STORM CHASERS! COME HERE IF YOU WANT TO SEE A TORNADO! I mean seriously
 
Just to play devil's advocate here, there are a few things on that GFS run that would give me pause from full-on sounding the alarm for Wednesday just yet.

Namely...there are subtle height rises (0.2 dam/hr over the previous 12 hours) across the region with the most dangerous-looking parameter space (southwest Indiana southward across TN/KY to northern Mississippi). Generally for a tornado outbreak I'd want to see falling heights across the region of interest. In this case it seems the stronger height falls just barely clip even the northern extent of the risk area (northern Illinois), glancing off to the northwest within the cool sector.

Secondly, the surface low is filling with time (980mb at 15Z Wednesday to 986mb at 00Z Thursday). Generally I'd like to see it deepening into the timeframe of interest, backing the surface winds and intensifying the LLJ. That's one of the things I look for to give me high confidence in a big outbreak, we saw it with 3/31/23 and IIRC 4/26/24.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Just to play devil's advocate here, there are a few things on that GFS run that would give me pause from full-on sounding the alarm for Wednesday just yet.

Namely...there are subtle height rises (0.2 dam/hr over the previous 12 hours) across the region with the most dangerous-looking parameter space (southwest Indiana southward across TN/KY to northern Mississippi). Generally for a tornado outbreak I'd want to see falling heights across the region of interest. In this case it seems the stronger height falls just barely clip even the northern extent of the risk area (northern Illinois), glancing off to the northwest within the cool sector.

Secondly, the surface low is filling with time (980mb at 15Z Wednesday to 986mb at 00Z Thursday). Generally I'd like to see it deepening into the timeframe of interest, backing the surface winds and intensifying the LLJ. That's one of the things I look for to give me high confidence in a big outbreak, we saw it with 3/31/23 and IIRC 4/26/24.
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While I do agree with you generally, this type of more subtle height change with time + a weak cap tends to favor widespread discrete cells. Also, some of the larger events in history had a filling surface low through the afternoon, it is not always needed to have a deepening low.
 
andyhb said:
View attachment 37641

While I do agree with you generally, this type of more subtle height change with time + a weak cap tends to favor widespread discrete cells. Also, some of the larger events in history had a filling surface low through the afternoon, it is not always needed to have a deepening low.
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Trust me. I can remember lot
Major events with slp slowly rising … that is a very particular dangerous looking setup there
 
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