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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

ColdFront said:
No one really knows. Our better record keeping of tornados only goes back 50-60 years, so we really don’t know how often they occur. People used to say 4/3/74 was a one in 500 year outbreak, and not even 40 years later you had another one.
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Before April 3-4, 1974, you had the Deep South Outbreak of March 21, 1932 and before that was the Enigma Outbreak of February 19-20, 1884. Before that, I don't know.
 
Atlantic said:
I remember 4/27/11. I was 5 at the time. I saw a shopping center's roof ripped off but the building was still standing most from what I can remember. Is there a return period of sorts for an event like 4/3/74 and 4/27/11?
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There are a lot of conflicting viewpoints on this topic. But there have definitely been a few upper end events like 4/3/1974 and 4/27/2011. The Enigma Outbreak of 2/19/1884 affected areas from Mississippi to the Ohio Valley eastward to the Tidewater. ~60 tornadoes (likely more) and between 200-800 fatalities occurred with 37 significant tornadoes. And we really don't know much about it compared to other events. Then you have 3/21-22/1932 which affected mainly the Deep South and contained ~50 tornadoes (36 significant) resulting in ~334 fatalities. An event like 4/11/1965 is also comparable to these outbreaks. While there is some spread in time for these events, we could have one this year and another next year.

Then you have many outbreaks that have produced 20/30+ tornadoes with 10+ of those being significant.
 
MichelleH said:
Before April 3-4, 1974, you had the Deep South Outbreak of March 21, 1932 and before that was the Enigma Outbreak of February 19-20, 1884. Before that, I don't know.
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April 4, 1974…AND … WEDNESDAY
April 27, 2011….. WEDNESDAY
March 21, 1932….. Monday

February 19-20, 1884….. Tuesday…….. AND WEDNESDAY

While these are big outbreaks that take place on a Wednesday, this info can lend to biases and cause people to think that Wednesday is somehow cursed, and big outbreaks ONLY happen on Wednesday. Be careful. If you were to take all of the outbreaks and sequences as far back as possible, and total how many tornadoes of each intensity occurred on each of the 7 days, I wonder if people would still feel the same about Wednesday?? Lol

I will say this again: whatever rules, biases, and prejudices people may have about the weather because of the last few decades should be thrown out now. The earth is going to increasingly continue to do things it has not done before, in places it has not before, etc.

Just saying…….
 
KevinH said:
April 4, 1974…AND … WEDNESDAY
April 27, 2011….. WEDNESDAY
March 21, 1932….. Monday

February 19-20, 1884….. Tuesday…….. AND WEDNESDAY

While these are big outbreaks that take place on a Wednesday, this info can lend to biases and cause people to think that Wednesday is somehow cursed, and big outbreaks ONLY happen on Wednesday. Be careful. If you were to take all of the outbreaks and sequences as far back as possible, and total how many tornadoes of each intensity occurred on each of the 7 days, I wonder if people would still feel the same about Wednesday?? Lol

I will say this again: whatever rules, biases, and prejudices people may have about the weather because of the last few decades should be thrown out now. The earth is going to increasingly continue to do things it has not done before, in places it has not before, etc.

Just saying…….
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This particular reply was about super outbreaks, not Wednesdays. And I'm not saying Wednesday's are cursed, it's just interesting. I also have several more tornado events in my records that happened on a Wednesday, but thought I had gone off topic enough.
 
Regarding the whole "generational" tag that has been applied to events like 4/27/2011, that narrative, from a tornado history standpoint, is legitimately false if you apply it across the United States and not just to one specific region. I realize Spann/etc. are using it to mean the Deep South (MS/AL/GA), but when you look through the records, these types of anomalous major events with large numbers of violent tornadoes and fatalities (not even counting outbreak sequences like in 1896, 1917, and 1930) generally do not follow a 30-40 year return, especially when you consider rarity for the region they affect.

2/19-20/1884
3/27/1890
4/24/1908
3/28/1920
4/20/1920
3/21-22/1932
3/16-17/1942
5/20-21/1949
3/21-22/1952
4/11/1965
4/3/1974
5/31/1985
4/27/2011

Of course, much of this is also tied to changes in tornado ratings since earlier days, since there would probably be additional events in recent years (1990s-present) with 6+ violent tornadoes if you account for that.
 
Only thing I'll say about next Wednesday at this time is it has me worried bigtime. My current forecasted high for that day is near 90 degrees..... Yeah. That is all.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Cips severe aggregate is already robust for this event. Highest threat area seems to highlight the highest EHI Values in the GFS (central/north Mississippi and northwest quadrant of Alabama along with southwest tennesse)View attachment 37579
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That's because the CSU MLP is initialized off the GEFS as input data.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
View attachment 37581

You talking about the dot I circled? I think that's the point where the highest potential is maybe?
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I *think* the dot is supposed to represent the ML-modelled probability apex location, but don't quote me on that. Same rule applies for D1-3 hazard-specific data afaik.
 
andyhb said:
Regarding the whole "generational" tag that has been applied to events like 4/27/2011, that narrative, from a tornado history standpoint, is legitimately false if you apply it across the United States and not just to one specific region. I realize Spann/etc. are using it to mean the Deep South (MS/AL/GA), but when you look through the records, these types of anomalous major events with large numbers of violent tornadoes and fatalities (not even counting outbreak sequences like in 1896, 1917, and 1930) generally do not follow a 30-40 year return, especially when you consider rarity for the region they affect.

2/19-20/1884
3/27/1890
4/24/1908
3/28/1920
4/20/1920
3/21-22/1932
3/16-17/1942
5/20-21/1949
3/21-22/1952
4/11/1965
4/3/1974
5/31/1985
4/27/2011

Of course, much of this is also tied to changes in tornado ratings since earlier days, since there would probably be additional events in recent years (1990s-present) with 6+ violent tornadoes if you account for that.
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That’s part of why I’ve always found the way that “generational” outbreaks are talked about to be frustrating. Even if we look at just the Deep South: just because an event of this caliber seems to happen there every 30-40 years doesn’t mean that the next one is going to happen 30-40 years after the 2011 outbreak, something I know that meteorologists like Tony Lyza who have done studies on Deep South events have pointed out.

I mean, if we just take the modeled environment we were seeing in many of the runs before the 3/15 event, it looked like something of that magnitude might happen that day. Fortunately, It’s often subtle factors on these high potential days that are the difference between an event being your typical high-end day and something “generational”.
 
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