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Severe WX Severe threat 3/30-3/31

Clancy said:
Yeah, I'm not gonna lean too hard on globals on this one. Also just a really tricky forecast, as @wx_guy stated. Not really a typical setup and a bevy of factors that require us to tilt some of the typical attitudes we approach Deep South events with. Not sure we've really had many in the Southeast since pre-2010, but Dixie-style isolated supercell outbreaks have the capacity to be sparse but particularly intense. Will be an interesting one to watch in any case, that's for sure.
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I'm still hopeful that the mid south will attain moderate risk status as we get closer
 
Mrgolfman7070 said:
I'm still hopeful that the mid south will attain moderate risk status as we get closer
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Dance Starz GIF by Step Up Series
 
Man I missed a lot. Meningitis shots are no joke, been drowsy all day.
This set up is indeed super weird. I’m really hoping it’s not like the Friday before the high risk day in the last outbreak where the models downtrended a little bit and significantly increased again.

Also @JPWX that is an insane reoccurring tornado frequency for Monroe County.
It’s definitely one of the tornado hot spots around this country.
 
Bulkshear said:
Thought you all might get a kick out of this…This guy is a tool. You can’t say tornado outbreak at this point. Also look where he put the main area of concern ( most of TN)
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I have a lot of respect for Reed because he genuinely is a very caring and respectful man, but man he is always on board the hype train for any chance of severe weather I swear!
 
AJS said:
I have a lot of respect for Reed because he genuinely is a very caring and respectful man, but man he is always on board the hype train for any chance of severe weather I swear!
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Yes he is for sure. The thing that gets me is this isn’t the time to be posting something like this because there are too many unanswered questions that even he doesn’t have the answers to yet. This is strictly for clicks and monetization and not love for the science. By doing this, if it doesn’t come to fruition, he may hinder people taking a really serious situation lightly by basically crying wolf for money.
 
Bulkshear said:
Thought you all might get a kick out of this…This guy is a tool. You can’t say tornado outbreak at this point. Also look where he put the main area of concern ( most of TN)
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It's so annoying. The guy has absolutely been around long enough to know that these setups are super finicky, even on days with high confidence. This is absolutely a low confidence forecast at this point and he's still saying things like this? If nothing ends up happening, all this does is enhance public distrust of meteorologists, and even scientists in general, especially with the current political climate. Reed really needs to stop hype-casting
 
Bulkshear said:
Thought you all might get a kick out of this…This guy is a tool. You can’t say tornado outbreak at this point. Also look where he put the main area of concern ( most of TN)
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What is incorrect about his post? “Possible tornado outbreak” and then he defines exactly what that means. Tool or not, the guy has popularized a once “nerdy” hobby and he ALWAYS FINDS TORNADOS. Almost weird how often he is right.

I saw the same thing the other day and thought it may be premature but he does qualify the claim.
 
LoopingHodos said:
What is incorrect about his post? “Possible tornado outbreak” and then he defines exactly what that means. Tool or not, the guy has popularized a once “nerdy” hobby and he ALWAYS FINDS TORNADOS. Almost weird how often he is right.

I saw the same thing the other day and thought it may be premature but he does qualify the claim.
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I think what gets people confused is they think of tornado outbreak and think of like Easter 2020, April 27th 2011, outbreak of 74. Big outbreaks. the definition of tornado outbreak is kindve loose and has wide boundaries lol, by the definition reed uses every QCLS in Alabama turns out to be a tornado outbreak.
 
LoopingHodos said:
What is incorrect about his post? “Possible tornado outbreak” and then he defines exactly what that means. Tool or not, the guy has popularized a once “nerdy” hobby and he ALWAYS FINDS TORNADOS. Almost weird how often he is right.

I saw the same thing the other day and thought it may be premature but he does qualify the claim.
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Reed is an excellent chaser. He may actually be the GOAT. I think he’s mellowed as he’s gotten older. However, when he was younger, there’s a reason his chasing partners didn’t stick around long. Guy seemed like an insufferable tool. He was also pretty ostracized from the meteorological and scientific community around Norman for his behavior.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Big 1
Million dollar question this evening , do we see a area upgraded to 30 percent t in ovet
Night 3 day outlook ….???
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I believe we will. Outside of the GFS being the GFS, everything points to a significant outbreak Sunday. Main question seems to be storm mode type, but general timing consensus seems to be Sunday night. The only factor I see of why they hold off on going Enhanced overnight is storm mode. Outside of that, I see no obvious reason why they shouldn't pull Enhanced.
 
The 18z euro has a huge Bow echo Sunday evening it looks like in East Lousianna/ West Mississippi.. (wondernng if this could dampen the threat later that night early next morning)

Also that's a bad look for tornadoes Sunday night/ Monday morning.

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_29.pngecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_26.png
 
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JPWX said:
I believe we will. Outside of the GFS being the GFS, everything points to a significant outbreak Sunday. Main question seems to be storm mode type, but general timing consensus seems to be Sunday night. The only factor I see of why they hold off on going Enhanced overnight is storm mode. Outside of that, I see no obvious reason why they shouldn't pull Enhanced.
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I think they go 30% but have caveats in every other sentence lol
 
Also am quite bummed that I won’t get to chase this weekend. I’ve got an open water tournament to attend so I won’t be able to chase this weekend.

However, the models continue to show a perhaps impressive outbreak around the 4th of April and if time allows, I may make the drive up to some of those states.
 
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