Archive March 18-20th, 2018 Severe Weather

[Evan]

Storm SE of Anniston wants to rotate, not entering a great environment, but some slightly higher shear than where it was if I read the Mesoanalysis right.

Latest HRRR shows much higher STP values into Eastern AL than previous runs. Especially around Talladega, Clay, Calhoun, and St. Clair.

 

[TileDude]

Was reported that NOAA was flying a research plane over north Alabama.

 

[Equus]

New tornado watch central TN. 40/20, not a PDS.

 

[Mike S]

Was reported that NOAA was flying a research plane over north Alabama.

Snap shot of this flight from Flight Aware (I assume)

 

[Tennie]

Snap shot of this flight from Flight Aware (I assume)

According to FlightRadar24, it's been flying over much of the Alabama section of the Tennessee River Valley. As I'm typing this, it's currently near Scottsboro.

 

[stebo]

I would watch the cell near New Albany MS, that one looks to be getting dominant.

 

[Mike S]

According to FlightRadar24 it's been flying over much of the Alabama section of the Tennessee River Valley. As I'm typing this, it's currently near Scottsboro.

Yep

 

[Mike S]

Here is the page for the NOAA plane we're discussing if you want to follow. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA42

 

[Tennie]

I would watch the cell near New Albany MS, that one looks to be getting dominant.

And now there's a severe storm warning for the cells between New Albany and Jumpertown.

 

[Evan]

Storms are breaking up and filling out nicely. Not at all what we wanted to see. Definitely shaping up to be a very dangerous event.

 

[akt1985]

Any chance for a high risk this evening?

 

[Argus]

My weather has deteriorated a bit. Was just overcast an hour ago, but now very light rain falling and we're down to 61/55.

 

[Kory]

Latest 3km NAM and HRRR show several long UH streaks through North and Central AL.

 

[warneagle]

Any chance for a high risk this evening?

I don't think they're planning any categorical changes based on the wording of the last outlook but maybe.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I don't think they're planning any categorical changes based on the wording of the last outlook but maybe.

It's possible but it would be a bit academic if a high-risk caliber event is already underway at 01Z. Not a fan of 11th-hour upgrades to high risk but it has been done before (namely May 22, 2004 for the Hallam, NE tornado outbreak). IMO the whole point of a high risk is to allow the weather enterprise to spread the word in advance about a high-confidence exceptional event. That lead time factor is lost if you upgrade during the event.

 

[JayF]

In Morgan county we went from 65 degrees to 74 in less than an hour

 

[Gus]

We had hail storm from hell in Meridianville. Damage to cars and probably roof.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Any chance for a high risk this evening?

Doubtful, but not entirely impossible. The greatest risk is probably before 0100 and in any case it's exceptionally rare to issue high risks at 0100.

 

[Kory]

Two main supercells look to be taking shape along the boundary...

 

[Equus]

First tornado warning in the MS cluster. Here we go