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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

New MCD:

"


SUMMARY...Ongoing supercells are likely to persist through the
afternoon with intense to violent tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Multiple mature supercells have developed from central
to south-central Mississippi. One of these supercells has already
produced a likely violent tornado across Walthall county. The
environment downstream of these supercells continues to destabilize,
which will maintain the threat through the afternoon and likely into
the evening. Eventually, these storms will likely move east of the
upper 60s dewpoints. However, mid 60s dewpoints, which are expected
to be prevalent across Alabama, should be sufficient for a continued
intense to violent tornado threat given the continued favorable
kinematics and the presence of already strong supercells. This is
supported by the 17Z WoFS with more than half of the ensemble
members showing one or more long track UH swaths from south-central
Mississippi to central Alabama through the afternoon.

Increased forcing with the ejecting mid-level jet max, has led to a
large amount of additional showers and small thunderstorms in the
vicinity of these storms. This may lead to occasional disruptions of
tornadic circulations, but expect the strongly dynamic pressure
perturbations associated with the ongoing supercells to persist
through the entire afternoon.

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