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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

I don't think it is controversial to say the latest CAMs made things appear a little less clear.

It is also true that the CAMs sometimes struggle in the immediate proximity of an event before figuring things back out as more data comes in.

Likewise, it makes a lot of sense to focus more on radar, observations, and observed soundings since we're into realtime forecasting now. It was a lot easier to picture a high-end ceiling when the CAMs were consistently showing numerous unmolested discrete supercells in the OWS.

I am already at 79 degrees, and I wasn't forecasted to reach that temperature, and certainly not this soon. Dewpoints seem to be running a few degrees higher than projected for 17z in a number of areas.

Nonetheless, we shouldn't discount that the CAMs are showing a messier storm mode. In particular, the northern movement of storms that several others have pointed out is something to watch closely as that usually impacts the ability for discrete storms to stay discrete with adequate spacing. If we see discrete storms start to move in more traditional ways and maintain better spacing that will also be very telling.

Ultimately, I don't think some of the potential failure modes mentioned should just be rejected automatically -- but, neither should we be thinking that things have downtrended and discrete long-track supercells with significant tornadoes are off the table. It is way too early to buy into a concrete conclusion right now.
 
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